\u3000\u3000 Macmic Science & Technology Co.Ltd(688711) (688711)
Under the dual carbon and domestic substitution, the company's annual performance is expected to achieve high growth. The company expects to achieve revenue of 450 million to 530 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 35.69% to + 59.82%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 60 million to 68 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 125.24% to + 155.28%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 35 million to 45 million, a year-on-year increase of + 52.48% to + 96.05%.
IGBT's outlook remains unchanged, and its performance in 2021q4 maintains steady growth. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2021q4 will reach RMB 80 million to RMB 160 million, with a year-on-year increase of - 15.68% to + 68.58% and a month on month increase of - 40.94% to + 18.08%; The net profit was 13.94 million to 21.94 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 67.88% to + 164.22%, and a month on month increase of - 4.96% to + 49.58%.
The raised investment project is progressing smoothly, and the module capacity is expanded in an orderly manner. In 2021, the module capacity of the company's old plant is expected to be 4.5 million pieces / year, which is in a saturated state. The planned total capacity of the new plant is 6.8 million yuan. As of November 2021, the new plant has built two production lines and entered the production climbing state. In 2022, with the gradual release of module capacity, the company's revenue will maintain high-speed growth.
The satisfaction rate of PV orders is still low, and it is expected that the introduction of new generation plants will contribute to the increment. In 2019, the company cooperated with Huawei on photovoltaic inverter single tube products. At present, the orders are relatively full, but considering the current tight supply chain, the photovoltaic orders can not be fully met. Single tube shipments are mainly limited by the capacity of the foundry. In 2021, the company began to develop a third chip foundry. In 2022, the industrial capacity is expected to increase, and the revenue of photovoltaic IGBT is expected to accelerate.
IGBT is progressing smoothly, and 15 models have been designated. The company has entered 4-5 automobile brand manufacturers and has completed a total of 15 fixed-point models. It is expected that it will have a large volume in 2023. In 2022, the company's 750V vehicle gauge IGBT and Huichuan customized model are expected to contribute revenue. The company actively cooperates with Tier1 manufacturers. Automotive products advocate the ultimate performance, reliability and cost. Customized services have great advantages and can provide customers with better products.
Some SiC devices have been shipped stably, and we pay attention to the research and development progress of new products. At present, the company has stably shipped some silicon carbide devices, and actively developed high-power silicon carbide devices with downstream customers. According to yole's report, the SiC market will reach US $2.562 billion in 2025, with a CAGR of about 30%. Electric vehicle is the largest downstream application market of SiC devices, which is expected to reach US $1.553 billion in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of 38%.
Profit forecast: we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 to be RMB 69 million, 105 million and 171 million respectively, corresponding to 160 / 106 / 65 times of the share price PE on January 20, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the gross profit margin is lower than expected, R & D is lower than expected, and OEM capacity is lower than expected.
