\u3000\u3000 Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) (001205)
Share: coastal chemicals and oil products
Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) there is a large space for developing coastal chemical shipping business. First, the demand for China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) products increased rapidly, and the demand for main chemical raw materials increased by about 10%; Second, some chemicals have high import dependence and large import volume, and there is a large space for domestic substitution in the future; Third, in 2020 Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) , the share of transportation capacity in the coastal chemical shipping market will be about 5.5% and the share of transportation volume will be about 8.6%, so there is much room for improvement in the future. We estimate that the revenue of coastal chemical shipping market will be 4 billion yuan and the net profit will be about 1 billion yuan in 2020. The profit of coastal oil shipping market is close to that of chemicals, Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) increasing its share by shipbuilding and buying ships.
Expanded category: liquefied gas and low carbon fuel
Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) actively expand the fast-growing coastal liquefied gas shipping business. In 2017-20, the annual growth rate of coastal LPG shipping market was 11.5%. We estimate that in 2020, the market revenue will be 1.6 billion yuan and the net profit will be 300 million yuan. Compared with the per capita consumption of developed countries, China's LPG demand has great room for growth. The profitability of coastal LPG shipping is close to that of coastal oil and chemical shipping, and the net profit margin of sales is nearly 20%. Carbon neutralization promotes the development of low-carbon fuels and has great room for growth in the future.
Expansion area: Yangtze River and land market
The capacity of the Yangtze River liquid dangerous goods shipping market is about 30% of that of the coastal area, and the leading company roe is close to the coastal dangerous goods shipping company. Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) expand the Yangtze River market and its share is expected to continue to increase. The international shipping market for hazardous chemicals has a large capacity, but it is highly cyclical and its profitability is low. The land transportation market of chemical products is huge, Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) extends to the upstream and downstream supply chains such as wharf, storage and road transportation.
Raise the target price to 48.86 yuan
Increase the expected growth rate in the semi dominant period from 2024 to 2030. Maintain the profit forecast for 2021-23. Raise the expected growth rate of the semi dominant period from 10% to 18.7%: Nanjing Shenghang Shipping Co.Ltd(001205) actively expand the transportation capacity, improve the market share of coastal chemical ships, increase the layout of coastal liquefied gas ships and oil tankers, expand the shipping market of dangerous liquid goods in the Yangtze River, and deploy road transportation and storage business. Select Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) and Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) with high expected growth rate and weak periodicity in 2021-23 as comparable companies. Based on the expected PE and excess profit discount value of comparable companies in 2022, the target price is given as 48.86 yuan.
Risk tip: the entry threshold of coastal dangerous chemicals shipping has decreased, the output of chemical industry fluctuates, the company has safety accidents in dangerous chemicals transportation, the fuel price has increased sharply, the business has diversified rapidly, and the calculation is subjective for reference only.
