\u3000\u3000 Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) (301080)
Event overview
On January 20, 2022, Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) released the performance forecast for 2021: the company expects to achieve an annual operating revenue of 382-402 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% - 63%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year will be 170-187 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47% - 61%; It is estimated that the net profit of non deduction in the whole year is RMB 163 million-180 million, with a year-on-year increase of 40% - 54%.
The performance was in line with expectations and maintained a high profit level throughout the year
1) revenue side: the company expects to achieve operating revenue of 382 million yuan to 402 million yuan in the whole year, with a year-on-year increase of 55% - 63%. In the fourth quarter alone, the company expects to achieve revenue of 106 million yuan to 126 million yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 4.79% - 24.59%.
2) profit side: the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year to be 170-187 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 47% - 61%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 42.29% - 48.95%, which is basically the same as that in 2020. It is estimated that the overall gross profit margin of the whole year can be maintained at a high level of about 90%, and the four expense rates also tend to be stable. In the fourth quarter alone, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 49 million yuan - 66 million yuan, with a month on month change of - 0.89% - 33.67%.
Regular business income increased significantly, and covid-19 related businesses brought stable cash flow
In terms of products: 1) for conventional products, it is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 295 million yuan - 305 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 70% - 76%, mainly because the company has increased its stickiness with original industrial customers by continuously improving its product system, and continues to develop new customers with the help of good industry reputation; 2) The revenue of covid-19 related products is expected to be 87-97 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 20% - 33%, which is due to the company's continuous improvement of epidemic response speed and the timely development of related high-quality antibodies, antigens, kits and other products.
The recombinant protein track is small and beautiful, and the company continues to promote the global layout
The company's main business is drug target recombinant protein, with nearly 2000 products. At present, it ranks second among Chinese manufacturers and fourth among global manufacturers. Since 2012, the company has started to set up overseas teams. From 2017 to 2020, the company's overseas revenue exceeded 60% and the three-year CAGR was about 68%. It is expected that the company's overseas proportion will decrease slightly in 2021 compared with 2020, which is due to the repeated overseas epidemic, but the company's global layout continues.
Investment suggestion: with the gradual improvement of the company's product types, the continuous improvement of production capacity, the continuous strengthening of stickiness with industrial customers and the acceleration of globalization, we expect the company's revenue to be RMB 399 / 559 / 788 million from 2021 to 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 184 / 261 / 367 million, corresponding to PE multiple of 56 ×/ forty ×/ twenty-eight ×。 Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the global covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated; Product development is not as expected; Risk of product price decline; Customer order loss risk.
