\u3000\u3000 Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (300413)
Event:
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will range from RMB 2.04 billion to RMB 2.14 billion, yoy + 2.9% to 8.0%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 2 to 2.1 billion, yoy + 8.3% to 13.8%. Corresponding to 2021q4 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 60 million to RMB 160 million, yoy - 56.8% to - 83.8%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 30 million to RMB 130 million, yoy-67.1% to - 92.4%.
Less content broadcasting and restructuring of subsidiaries led to lower profits in 2021q4 than we expected: (1) the core variety show "star detective 7" in 2021q4 was postponed, the broadcast of happy camp was stopped in October, and it was revised and renamed as "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " in January 2022. 2021q4 since the end of brother through thorns in October, there are no other popular variety shows. It is expected that the content is less broadcast, resulting in flat revenue performance. (2) In 2021q2, the company adjusted the three subsidiaries of mango film and television, mango entertainment and Shanghai mango mutual entertainment to the subsidiaries of mango TV, the main platform, focusing on the self-made monsoon theater, the innovation of variety content and the operation of live entertainment respectively. The business integration and transformation led to a year-on-year decline in various main business indicators, and the impact on the performance continued until 2021q4. (3) Affected by the epidemic situation, weak consumption and policies, the advertising willingness of Internet / consumer goods / education and other industries is not strong, and the advertising revenue of the company is expected to be affected to a certain extent.
In 2021, the revenue growth rate of advertising and operators exceeded 30%. On the basis of promising high-quality content, the business will develop healthily in 2022: (1) in terms of content, in addition to Mingjian 7 and hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) , which were delayed last year, the variety end also reserves a series of popular variety shows such as sister riding the wind and waves 3, brother cutting through thorns 2 and secret room escape 4, The music competition variety "living sound" is expected to be broadcast in 2022q1; The monsoon theater at the end of the series continues to output steadily, with reserves of "wife's choice", "Zhang Weiguo's summer", "extraordinary doctor", etc. in addition, there are popular potential dramas such as "Shangshi", "juvenile school 2" and "forensic Qin Ming" to be broadcast. (2) At the end of 2021, the official announced the price increase of members in January 2022 and upgraded their rights and interests. The price increase range of Apple end was 4.8% - 9.4%; The price increase of anzhuo terminal is 22.5% - 28.9%, which directly stimulates a new round of member renewal. At the end of the year, the number of effective members of mango TV reached 50.4 million, yoy + 40%, which is in line with expectations and is expected to further boost the increase of member income in 2022. (3) The operator's business and mobile Migu strengthened cooperation and signed a cooperation framework agreement for 2021-2023, with a cooperation amount of no less than 3.5 billion yuan. (4) The peak value of Xiaomang dau, an e-commerce platform, reached 1.26 million and reached KPI. Mango m-city, a self operated live entertainment brand, operates well in Changsha and Shanghai, and is expected to open more stores in Chengdu, Wuhan and other cities.
Multi directional entry into metauniverse: Hunan Radio and television will take the National Key Laboratory of radio and television 5g as the base and explore the opportunity of cooperation with Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) mobile to build mango metauniverse: Launch technological innovation achievements such as virtual host "Yahoo", AR star co shooting interactive system, interactive video platform, imgo ultra-high definition video repair and enhancement platform, It will build the infrastructure of mango metauniverse through three aspects of "interaction + virtual + cloud rendering". In addition, the variety "Hello Saturday Co.Ltd(002291) " will introduce the virtual host Xiaoyang and carry out personalized training.
Profit forecast and investment rating: short video platform "erchuang" regulatory overweight, "Qinglang action" content regulatory policy is expected to continue, and the competition pattern of long video platform is expected to improve. As a party media and state-owned enterprise, the company takes practical actions to resist industrial chaos and establish a new benchmark for the development of state-owned Internet enterprises; Good cash flow and profitability, and establish a positive ecological cycle of long video content. According to the performance forecast, we adjusted the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.1/25.6/3 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 1.12/1.37/1.60 yuan and PE of 38.8/31.9/27.2x, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: membership growth fails to meet expectations, content performance fails to meet expectations, copyright price increases, IPTV / Ott / new technology layout fails to meet expectations, policy risks, core brain drain, change of advertisers' budget preferences, corporate governance structure risks, market style switching, etc.
