\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) (600004)
Key investment points
Business data performance: in the second half of the year, it continued to suffer the impact of the epidemic, and Q4 passenger throughput was - 2% month on month
21q4: the company's passenger throughput, takeoff and landing sorties, cargo and mail throughput were - 51%, - 28%, + 8.3% respectively in 19 years, and - 37%, - 25%, + 10.4% respectively in 20 years; Compared with 21q3, they were - 1.8%, + 2.5%, + 11.4% respectively.
In 2021, the company's passenger throughput and takeoff and landing sorties were - 45%, - 26%, + 6% respectively in 19 years, and - 8%, - 3%, + 16% respectively in 20 years.
Profit side: turn around losses in case of poor Q4 passenger flow, or it is related to the rhythm of cost accrual of the company
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be - 470 to - 380 million yuan, of which Q4 is expected to be 20-110 million yuan, so as to turn around the loss. In the fourth quarter alone, 20q4 made a profit of 49.13 million yuan, and 21q4 is expected to be - 50% to + 122% year-on-year, which is expected to become the best quarter since the epidemic.
The net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 is expected to be - 510 to - 430 million yuan, of which Q4 is expected to be 10.23 to 94.86 million yuan and Q4 non economic income is expected to be 14.44 million yuan.
21q4 company achieved a single quarter turnaround in the case of a month on month decline in passenger traffic. We believe that this may be related to the company's practice of cost front. Reviewing the past statements, the company's Q4 operating profit margin is often the highest quarter of the year.
Profit forecast and valuation
On October 15, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) officially announced that Louis Vuitton became the candidate for tax business investment promotion. We believe that the company will improve the layout of tax business in the future, and the entry of luxury goods will produce herding effect. The tax business has a high probability of cooperating with more international well-known luxury groups in the future, which is expected to improve the profitability of tax business of the company. At the same time, with the increasing vaccination rate in China, the relaxation of overseas entry-exit control and the continuous promotion of specific drug research and development, we believe that there is a high probability of significant recovery of international flights next year. We expect the company's EPS to be -0.18, 0.16 and 0.60 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023. Considering the increasing expectation of epidemic recovery, the company's current Pb is only 1.58 times, lower than the historical average of 1.74x, It is even lower than the 2.1X when the tax-free and taxable profits increased significantly in 2017-2019. The epidemic situation does not change the company's long-term growth space. We follow the pb2.1x in 2017-19 1X valued the company, corresponding to the share price of RMB 17.06 in 2022, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic is less than expected, and there is the possibility of re signing tax-free contracts.
