\u3000\u3000 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896)
Event overview. The company announced the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 900-1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 104.66% – 127.40%. After deducting the non parent net profit of RMB 850-950 million, with a year-on-year increase of 100.36% – 123.93%, it is expected to realize the parent net profit of RMB 191-291 million in Q4 single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 28.18% – 95.30%, and the parent net profit of Q3 single quarter is RMB 283 million.
Under the background of strict supervision, the demand for medical beauty has not been weakened, and the penetration of hi body series has accelerated. Since June 2021, the frequency and intensity of regulatory policies in the medical and beauty industry have exceeded those in the past, promoting the long-term, orderly and healthy development of the industry as a whole. For upstream pharmaceutical and mechanical service providers, the approval process is progressing normally, and strict supervision provides more space for compliant products to replace informal products. According to the latest data of new oxygen, in 2021, the overall scale of the medical and American industry reached 184.6 billion yuan, achieving a high growth of 20% year-on-year. The number of medical and American users was 18.13 million, a year-on-year increase of 19.27%, and the high outlook still existed. Look at Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) : 1) hi body series: the fully competitive hyaluronic acid market is more subdivided and diversified as a whole. The black eye ring removing and neck tattoo removing markets targeted by the company’s panda needle and neck tattoo needle account for the second and third place in the list of hyaluronic acid demand with 17.05% and 8.87% of orders respectively, and the corresponding market terminal scale is 1.337 billion yuan and 2.057 billion yuan respectively, which has a broad space, According to the ex factory price and terminal selling price of hi body, the annual sales volume of hi body series is expected to be 950-1 billion yuan. 2) Huihuo hugging needle: hyaluronic acid has obvious effect on superficial injection. As a category of Shuiguang needle, its moisturizing and whitening effect has an obvious upward trend. However, Shuiguang products are relatively chaotic at present. Huihuo bubble needle is expected to break out of the encirclement by virtue of its scarce formal product identity + hi body series brand effect. 3) Bonida: the market recognition of bone hyaluronic acid filler is gradually improved, and it is expected to double in the whole year.
The product matrix is further enriched, and the marketing network has both depth and breadth. The company’s recycled product Tongyan needle (Rubai angel) has been approved by nmpa for class III devices since June 21. It has opened up rapidly since it was launched in August. The milky white, what you see is what you get, less swelling reaction, strong shaping ability and regeneration function of moistening angel have good feedback among consumers. At the same time, the company has established a doctor license authorization system, combined doctor training with authorization system, efficient and stable channels and perfect learning platform system, brought first mover advantages to the promotion of new products, and helped Rubai angel to quickly penetrate between different types of institutions across the country. As of December, mubai angel has completed the authorization of 251 doctors, covering 50 cities across the country, mainly distributed in first tier cities and new first tier cities, covering 107 institutions. We believe that yubai angel will carry out in-depth penetration in the future through three aspects: renewable new market education + parallel products + partial substitution of hyaluronic acid. In addition, at present, there are only three compliant recycled products with a good competition pattern. According to the model and channel laying, it is expected that yubai angel will realize an income of about 300 million yuan in 2022.
Investment suggestion: the product matrix of hyaluronic acid + children’s face needle + embedding line is rich, and the channel + training system is high-quality and efficient, so as to promote continuous and large-scale production; Botulinum toxin + embedded products + liraglutide and other products are about to grow. It is expected to continuously improve the market share by virtue of its foresight and license advantages. In addition, the Q4 quarterly bonus confirmation, acquisition expenses and Hong Kong stock listing expenses, and the net interest rate may decrease. It is estimated that the company’s EPS in 21-23 years is 4.38/6.80/10.13 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 104 / 67 / 45x respectively. The company has good growth and certainty, and maintains the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the macro-economy is down, the industry competition is intensified, and the incubation of new products is less than expected.
