\u3000\u3000 Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) (600546)
The performance increased by more than 4 times, benefiting from the full release of coal price elasticity
The company released the annual performance forecast, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.5 ~ 5 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 444% ~ 505%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 4.58 ~ 5.08 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 437% ~ 496%. According to the calculation, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 2.75 ~ 3.25 billion yuan, an increase of 202% ~ 257% month on month. The annual performance increased by more than 4 times, and the Q4 single quarter increased by more than 2 times, which greatly exceeded the expectation. Main reasons: the prosperity of the coal industry continues to improve, and the coal market price continues to rise; The company comprehensively implemented lean management, scientifically controlled costs, moderately released advanced production capacity, ensured energy supply, and greatly optimized asset quality. Considering that the performance exceeded expectations, we raised the profit forecast for 2021-2022 and added the forecast for 2023. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 will be 47.4/50.4 (the previous value of 14.0 / 16.6) / 5.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 473.2% / 6.3% / 1.7%; EPS is 2.39/2.54 (former value 0.70/0.84) / 2.58 yuan; The corresponding latest share price PE is 3.8 / 3.5 / 3.5 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
2021q4 coal price rose sharply and performance flexibility was fully released
In terms of price, the coal price rose sharply year-on-year in 2021. The average spot price of QinGang power coal was 1029 yuan / ton, up 79% year-on-year. In Q4 single quarter, although the high price of thermal coal has dropped due to the price limit in the price law of the national development and Reform Commission since October 2021, the average price of Q4 single quarter has still increased significantly month on month: the spot price of Q4 QinGang thermal coal is 1355 yuan / ton, up 18.9% month on month; The average price of Shanxi origin was 937 yuan / ton, up 29.3% month on month. According to the approximate estimation of Q4 performance, we believe that the month on month increase of Q4 ton coal price (excluding tax) of the company may be significantly higher than that of port coal price. It is mainly due to the flexible price adjustment mode of the company, which fully benefits from the rise of coal price.
Reshape the coal price center and the era of high profit is coming
Since 2021, the tightening of supply elasticity and the growth of demand have substantially improved the fundamentals of the coal market and reshaped the coal price center. The national development and Reform Commission has raised the annual long-term association benchmark price to 700 yuan, which has also verified this logic from the policy level. Although 2021q4 guarantees supply and promotes the release of output higher than expected, the coal price is still difficult to return to the stage of 500 ~ 600 yuan. In the medium and long term, the space for new capacity is limited, the nuclear growth potential of stock capacity has been fully tapped, the coal supply is expected to peak ahead of demand, support the operation of high coal prices, and coal enterprises may usher in an era of sustained high profitability. Therefore, we expect the company’s performance to return to a benign and stable release. At the same time, we should pay attention to the transformation opportunities of the company on the hjt photovoltaic cell track.
Risk tip: economic growth is lower than expected; Risk of falling coal prices; The progress of photovoltaic project is less than expected
