\u3000\u3000 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896)
Performance overview: the company issued a performance pre increase announcement. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 900 million-1 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 104.66% – 127.4%. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 191 million-291 million in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 28.19% – 95.30%.
Performance comments: the median of the company’s performance forecast is in line with expectations. The company’s annual net profit doubled or more in 2021. The high growth of performance is mainly due to the company’s active expansion of sales team to expand institutional coverage and deepen cooperation with head institutions. Products such as “Hi ti”, “bonida” and “yubai angel” continue to increase in 2021. We expect the company’s revenue to be 1.46 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 106%. The central net interest rate of 2021q4 is lower than that of the first three quarters, mainly because Q4 is a traditional bonus season, the sales expenses are usually higher than those in other periods, and some intermediary expenses for the company’s acquisition of huansbio equity and the listing declaration of Hong Kong stocks are recognized in Q4.
Core focus: strict industry supervision drives the regulatory and rational development of the industry, and the company is in a leading position β And α Value.
1) regulations have been issued one after another, driving the medical and beauty industry to gradually develop in compliance and head-on, and the company β Logical reinforcement. Since the joint enforcement of the law by eight ministries and commissions in June last year, the industry policy supervision has gradually become stricter, which has aroused the market’s concern about the prosperity of the industry. However, we have always stressed that stricter supervision will accelerate the liquidation of long tail enterprises, improve the concentration of head Enterprises, and return the market share of parallel goods and fake goods to the formal market Legal and compliance institutions will jointly promote the healthy development of the industry for a long time. Looking forward to the future, taking the development process of the medical beauty industry in the United States and South Korea as an example, we believe that China’s medical beauty industry will inevitably experience many pains of strict industry supervision in the process of gradual development and growth, but the demand is constant, and the stricter supervision will accelerate the compliance market to replace the non-compliance market share. After the gradual expansion of the compliance market, It will promote the healthy growth of China’s medical and American market to expel bad currencies with good currencies and strengthen the company’s competitiveness β Logic.
2) products have differentiated competitive advantages, clear business logic, enabling terminal institutions and companies α Value highlights. From the product side, in terms of existing products, the company’s “Hi body” still monopolizes the neck fine line market at this stage, and the product bonus period is expected to continue for a long time. The new “moistening angel” focuses on “immediate filling + long-term repair”, which can solve the pain points of the current ordinary hyaluronic acid filling market, and the product positioning is quite different from the mainstream filling agents in the market, It is expected to usher in the starting stage after April this year, and the company’s performance growth is highly uncertain. In terms of pipeline development, the company has also actively deployed botulinum toxin (which is expected to be on sale in 2024), three embedded line products (which are expected to be approved in 2-3 and 2024-2026 years this year), modified sodium hyaluronate gel, which is used to treat mental retraction of Medical Polyvinyl Alcohol Gel Microspheres, is expected to be on sale in 2024-2025 years, and is coated with topical local anesthetic products (which are expected to be on sale in 2023). In addition, the pipeline of products under development will also lay out the health management market. Liraglutide injection for chronic weight management has completed phase I clinical (expected to be approved in 2025), and the growth value of the company is prominent. From the perspective of business logic, the company’s products accurately locate the indications. At first, the strong connection between the indications and the products is used to establish the consumer’s mind, and then the products are extended according to the feedback from the terminal channel, which once again strengthens the consumer’s mind, helps the terminal institutions reduce the customer acquisition cost to a certain extent, and superimposes the company’s continuous channel and institutional education in recent years, The company has strong stickiness with the middle and lower reaches, and the leading position in the industry is stable.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the tightening of supervision will accelerate the head and compliance of the industry and benefit the long-term development of the industry. The company has product pipeline layout in the three fields of hyaluronic acid, botulinum toxin and recycled materials, which continues to drive the upgrading and iteration of the supply side of medical beauty. In addition, strong R & D + high-quality products + deep channel operation will build a deep barrier for the company in the field of injection medical beauty, In addition, with clear business logic, continuous in-depth insight into consumer needs, and adhering to taking product power as the core of product design, the company has become a pioneer in China’s medical beauty market. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.460/24.22/3.441 billion respectively (growth rate: 106% / 66% / 42%, respectively), the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 953/15.69/2.217 billion respectively (growth rate: 117% / 65% / 41%, EPS will be RMB 4.40/7.25/10.25 respectively, and the current market value corresponds to PE classification of 104 / 63 / 45 times. As a leader in the medical and beauty industry, the company has strong performance cashing ability to digest the valuation. The company is given 65x-70xpe in 2023, and the target price range is 666.25-717.50 yuan. It is recommended to actively pay attention to the medium and long-term value of the company and maintain the “recommended” rating of the company.
Risk warning: the R & D progress is less than expected; The progress of product approval is less than expected; Risk of cosmetic medical malpractice; Industry competition intensifies risks.
