\u3000\u3000 Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896)
Event: the company announced the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be RMB 900-1 billion, an increase of 104.7% – 127.4% at the same time, and the net profit deducting non attributable to the parent company will be RMB 850-950 million, an increase of 100.4% – 123.9% at the same time. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was RMB 191-291 million, an increase of 28.0% – 94.9% at the same time, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was RMB 180-280 million, an increase of 25.0% – 94.5% at the same time. The company’s performance is in line with the annual expectation.
Comments:
It is expected that hi body, panda needle and other products will continue to have a high view, angel needle will contribute new increment, and the high growth on the income side can be expected. In the second half of the year, the industry was repeatedly affected by the epidemic, but benefited from stricter supervision and improved product share of regular high-quality leading manufacturers, we expect the company’s revenue end to maintain high growth, mainly because: 1) hi body, bear cat needle and other popular products have become important promotion products of institutions, consumer recognition has been continuously strengthened, and the high-profile trend has not changed, Continue to maintain high sales growth; 2) In the third quarter, we began to promote the moistening Angel needle and adopted a unique expert authorization system. The product has prominent selling points and is expected to continue to contribute new increment; 3) Bonida products benefit from the improvement of market heat of long-term anti-aging products, continuous verification of safety, targeting the forehead segment market, and are expected to achieve stable growth.
21q4 performance center meets expectations, and the impact of non recurring profits and losses is weakened. The expected growth range of 21q4 performance end of the company is large, and the central value is in line with the expectation. The high growth of the company’s performance mainly benefits from: 1) as the leader of China’s medical beauty, it improves product power and brand power with clear product strategy; 2) Continuously enrich the product matrix and deepen the breadth and depth of customers; 3) The scale effect was further enhanced and the profitability was improved. In addition, the non recurring profit and loss of the company for the whole year of 21 is expected to be 50 million yuan, of which 21q4 is expected to be 11 million yuan. Compared with 21q3, the impact of income from changes in fair value is 33 million yuan, and the non impact of 21q4 is weakened.
Moistening Angel needle is expected to become the next popular model, and the multi product layout can be expected in the future. According to frost Sullivan’s data, in 2020, the company’s sodium hyaluronate injection products ranked first with a market share of 27.2% in terms of sales volume and 14.3% in terms of amount. With the high scenery of hi body and panda needle, it is expected to further increase its share. In the second half of the year, the company began to promote the white angel needle, and collagen regeneration products have become anti-aging rookies. The company’s first product competes with the central axis plastic differentiation, which is expected to supplement the product line and seize the market share in the future. At the same time, the company actively distributes botulinum toxin (in phase 3 clinical trial) and liraglutide injection (in phase 1 clinical trial) products to open the ceiling of long-term growth. On the whole, the company has rich product reserves and adheres to the marketing mode of direct selling supplemented by distribution, which is expected to continue to take the lead in the fast-growing medical and American market.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company’s key products hi body, panda needle, bonida and other products have good terminal feedback, continue to maintain a high view, actively promote the products of moistening Angel needle, continuously enrich the product matrix, and have a large growth space in the future. We maintain the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.5 billion yuan / 2.27 billion yuan / 3.32 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 950 million yuan / 1.43 billion yuan / 2.09 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 4.4 yuan, 6.6 yuan and 9.6 yuan. At present, the corresponding PE share price is 104.4 times, 69.4 times and 47.4 times. Considering the rapid growth of the company’s hi body panda needle and other products, And the future product reserves are rich, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: the sales of hi body panda needles and other products did not meet expectations; Deterioration of industry demand; Policy supervision risk, etc
