\u3000\u3000 Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) (603225)
Event: the company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in 21 years. In 21 years, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.15-2.35 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 256.5% – 289.7%; In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 216-416 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year change of – 37% – + 21.3%, and a month-on-month decrease of 31.9% – 64.6%.
Comments:
Affected by the “double limit” policy, 21q4 performance is under pressure: the average prices of PTA and polyester POY in China in 21 years were 4685 yuan / ton and 7374 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 29% and + 32% respectively; The price differences of PTA and polyester POY were 493 yuan / ton and 1383 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 118 yuan / ton and + 341 yuan / ton respectively. The company’s product volume and price rose together, and its performance in 21 years increased significantly year-on-year. 21q4, the average prices of PTA and polyester POY in China were 4911 yuan / ton and 7746 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 47% and + 45% respectively, and a month on month increase of – 3% and + 3%; The price differences of PTA and polyester POY were 581 yuan / ton and 1446 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 51 yuan / ton and + 421 yuan / ton respectively, and a month on month increase of + 21 yuan / ton and + 262 yuan / ton respectively. Affected by the “double limit” policy, the energy cost of 21q4 company increased, the operating rate was under pressure, the downstream demand declined due to the epidemic, and the company’s 21q4 performance declined. Looking forward to 22 years, the epidemic situation is expected to be gradually controlled, and the downstream demand continues to recover. In addition, the company’s PTA and filament projects are steadily expanding production, with sufficient growth momentum, and its performance is expected to grow rapidly.
The production capacity expanded steadily, and the company’s growth can be expected in the future: the company made steady progress around the “two continents and two lakes” base and the goal of “two 10 million tons”. By the end of 21, the company had a polyester filament production capacity of 6 million tons. In November 21, Zhonglei chemical fiber phase I polyester staple fiber project with an annual output of 300000 tons was put into operation. With the commissioning of Dushan energy phase II PTA project with an annual output of 2.2 million tons, the actual annual PTA production capacity of the company has reached 5 million tons. The company has sufficient projects under construction: in January 22, Dushan energy phase III PTA project was started. After it is put into operation, it will realize the self-sufficiency of PTA raw materials and further reduce PTA costs; Dushan energy has an annual output of 4 million tons of PTA and 2.1 million tons of differentiated functional fibers (of which 600000 tons of functional differentiated fibers have been put into operation in July 21), Zhongyou chemical fiber has an annual output of 2 million tons of functional flexible customized staple fibers, 1 million tons of functional differentiated fibers and 300000 tons of polyester film new materials The differentiated fiber projects with an annual output of 2.7 million tons in Xinyi base are under planning. The company comprehensively promotes the strategic layout of polyester industry and provides long-term growth momentum for the company.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: affected by the “dual control of energy consumption” and power restriction policy, the company’s cost side is upward, and the profit of its main products is under pressure. Therefore, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 2021-2023. It is estimated that the net profit for 2021-2023 will be 22.89 (down 12%) / 32.67 (down 6%) / 36.69 (down 6%) billion yuan, equivalent to EPS 1.5 billion yuan 50 / 2.14 / 2.40 yuan. The company has sufficient projects under construction and sufficient growth momentum in the future. We are still optimistic about the future development of the company, so we maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the new production capacity is less than the expected risk; Risk of sharp rise in raw material prices; Downstream demand recovery is less than expected risk.
