\u3000\u3000 Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073)
Core view
Why is the ternary positive pole pattern scattered, and can the industry concentration be improved in the future?
The concentration of ternary positive electrode industry is lower than that of negative electrode, diaphragm, electrolyte and other lithium battery links. We believe that the scattered pattern is mainly due to: 1) there are many positive electrode technical routes, and the high-end passenger car market has not been significantly large; 2) Raw materials account for nearly 90%, and the industry is difficult to clear through cost advantage; 3) Early sales focused on small and medium-sized customers, and customer switching affected share growth. With a new round of high growth in the global new energy vehicle industry in 2021, we believe that the concentration will increase in the future: first, high nickel products are the only choice for high endurance passenger vehicles, with higher technical barriers and capital expenditure; Second, the concentration of the global power battery industry has further improved, while the head battery enterprises have a long certification cycle and high entry barriers. In order to ensure stability and consistency, battery enterprises usually only choose 3-5 major suppliers.
Overseas customers account for a high proportion and enjoy the expansion dividend of overseas giants. The company has profound technical accumulation and early and deep layout of high nickel products; At the same time, the overseas customers have made rapid progress and the card position is good. At present, it has basically covered the supply chain of overseas leading enterprises, and the proportion of overseas customers is high. In 2020, the company's lithium battery materials related business achieved a revenue of 3.014 billion yuan, of which the overseas revenue was 1.213 billion yuan, accounting for more than 40%, and the overseas shipment volume exceeded 70%. It is expected that in the future, the overseas lithium battery giant will usher in a rapid production expansion cycle. As its cathode material supplier, the production and sales of the company will be greatly driven by the downstream, effectively digest the new production capacity and share the growth dividend of overseas lithium battery.
The profitability is leading in the industry and will continue to occupy an advantage. In H1 2018-2021, the gross profit margin of the company's lithium battery related business increased from 16.42% to 20.01%, much higher than the industry average of 10.97%. It is expected that in the future, with the technical iteration brought by the trend of high nickel and the large volume of overseas head customers in European and American markets, the overseas order processing fee will be higher, and the profitability of the company is expected to remain stable.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We predict that the company's earnings per share from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.98 yuan, 2.86 yuan and 3.86 yuan respectively. According to the valuation level of comparable companies, we will give the company 36 times in 2022, the company's reasonable total market value is 52.2 billion yuan, corresponding to the company's overall target price of 103.09 yuan, and give a buy rating for the first time!
Risk tips
Downstream lithium battery demand is lower than expected; Technical route reform of power battery; Upstream raw material price fluctuations cannot be transmitted downward; The production capacity is lower than expected; Intensified industry competition, etc
