Photovoltaic equipment: driven by cost reduction of industrial chain technology, China's equipment demand will meet the outbreak. (1) Silicon wafer link: in 2021, new entrants to the silicon wafer industry such as Gaojing, Shuangliang and Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) will start large-scale production expansion, breaking the pattern of double oligarchs in Longji and Zhonghuan in the past. After the decline of silicon material price in 2022, the proportion of non silicon cost increased, driving the cost reduction of silicon wafer technology, replacing small size with large size, opening the renewal cycle of old capacity stock and prolonging the business cycle of silicon wafer equipment. (2) Battery chip link: in 2022, we suggest to focus on the introduction of key cost reduction and efficiency enhancement technologies into mass production: including microcrystalline technology with mass production efficiency of 25%, introduction and mass production of smbb, verification of silver clad copper and domestic silver slurry, progress in wafer slicing, progress in NP wafer parity, etc. We expect hjt to expand its production by 20-30gw in 2022, which is still driven by new players & old players with less perc capacity. By the end of 2022, the cost will be reduced to make hjt's manufacturing cost level with perc. We judge that old players of photovoltaic cells will start hjt's large-scale production expansion in 2023. (3) Component links: large size, multi slice, high-precision series welding, no main grid, laminated tile and other technical iterations have brought a huge stock renewal market. At present, the renewal cycle has been shortened to 1.5 years. Silicon chip equipment faucet [ Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) ], battery chip equipment hjt whole line faucet [ Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) ], component equipment faucet [ Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) ] and thermal field faucet [ Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) ] are recommended.
Lithium battery equipment: pay attention to the acceleration of overseas production expansion + the scarcity of production capacity of head equipment manufacturers, and be optimistic about the continuous improvement of the profitability of equipment leaders in all links. Compared with the large-scale expansion of Chinese battery plants in 2021, we believe that the similar large-scale expansion of overseas battery plants lags behind by 1-2 years. Since October 2021, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) & Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) & Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) have launched restricted stock incentive plans. From the perspective of performance objectives, the three pay more attention to the improvement of profitability. We believe that the net interest rate of lithium battery equipment manufacturers will continue to increase in 2022 under the market entry into the seller's market and the scale effect of equipment enterprises. It is recommended to focus on [ Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ] [ Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) ] [ Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) ] [ Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) ] [ Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) ] [ Suzhou Slac Precision Equipment Co.Ltd(300382) ].
Semiconductor equipment: semiconductor opens a new chapter in production expansion, and domestic equipment manufacturers welcome historic opportunities. We are optimistic about the opportunities of semiconductor industry chain and the accelerated localization of core equipment brought by the improvement of downstream prosperity in 2022. Key recommendations: (1) core link of wafer manufacturing: [ Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) ] etcher + localization leader of film deposition; [ Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) ] the leader of etching machine, and the large orders of wafer factory are accelerated; (2) Testing equipment: [ Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) ] semiconductor testing equipment platform company, and the new product 8300 has entered the mass production period; [ Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) ] digital testing machine opens up growth space; (3) Washer: [shengmei Shanghai] washer tap; [ Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) ] the faucet of the cleaning machine is in the production capacity climbing stage; (4) Structural member: [ Suzhou Huaya Intelligence Technology Co.Ltd(003043) ] metal structural member faucet; The rest focus on the field where [ Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) ] semiconductor detection equipment has obtained orders.
General automation: optimistic about the import substitution of intelligent manufacturing leaders. In the context of the downturn of manufacturing industry, we suggest paying attention to three main lines: (1) the import substitution target of core parts is recommended [ Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) ] [ Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) ] [ Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) ] [ Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) ], and [ Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) ]; (2) The business layout is oriented to the downstream with high prosperity and is expected to smooth the cyclical fluctuation of the industry. It is recommended [ Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) ]; (3) The inflection point of the renewal cycle is upward, and the import substitution can be expected under the scale expansion. It is recommended that machine tool enterprises [ Kede Numerical Control Co.Ltd(688305) ] [ Nantong Guosheng Intelligence Technology Group Co.Ltd(688558) ], and it is recommended to pay attention to [ Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) ] [ Guangdong Create Century Intelligent Equipment Group Corporation Limited(300083) ].
Laser industry: the fluctuation of manufacturing investment growth does not change the growth attribute of the industry. The fluctuation in the growth rate of manufacturing investment does not change the growth attribute of the industry. Since 2021q3, due to the impact of "power restriction" and the continuous rise in the price of raw materials, the outlook of the manufacturing industry has declined to a certain extent. In the medium and long term, as a golden track, the laser industry still has good growth. Under the background of downward pressure on the manufacturing industry, companies with excellent alpha capability are preferred, Focus on [ Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) ] [ Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) ] [ Han'S Laser Technology Industry Group Co.Ltd(002008) ] [ Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(300747) ] and other segment track leading enterprises.
Machine vision: focus on high-quality core parts. As the world's largest manufacturing country, China's machine vision penetration rate is low and there is great room for growth. In addition to the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of 3C, automobile and other traditional industries, the downstream application scene of machine vision is continuously expanding. It is the Changpo thick snow track in the manufacturing industry. It is recommended to focus on the local machine vision core parts leader [ Opt Machine Vision Tech Co.Ltd(688686) ] of keenshi. It is recommended to pay attention to [ Jutze Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300802) ] [ Wayz Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Co.Ltd(688211) ]。
Construction machinery: highlight the value attribute and pay attention to infrastructure + export structural opportunities. In 2021, the overall sales volume of the construction machinery industry showed the trend of top high and bottom, and the monthly data fluctuated greatly, but it is still expected to achieve positive growth under the high base for the whole year. The central economic work conference held from December 8 to 10 proposed to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. Looking forward to 2022, the sector is expected to significantly benefit from the counter cyclical policy. Driven by export recovery, tonnage miniaturization and the switching of environmental protection regulations, we expect that there will still be some structural opportunities in the industry in 2022. We recommend: [ Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ] [ Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ] [ Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ] [ Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ].
Third party detection: the third party detection passes through cattle and bears, and the domestic leader is preferred. The testing industry is a booming sunrise industry in China, deeply benefiting from the general trend of detailed commercial division of labor and increased demand for safety and quality. In 2020, China's third-party testing scale was 191.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, maintaining double-digit growth for many consecutive years. Under the industry's "endogenous + M & a" two wheel driven growth logic, the leading concentration continues to improve; Compared with overseas giants, domestic leaders have advantages in localization services, talent incentives and industrial opportunities, and the growth rate is higher than that of foreign leaders. Recommend domestic third-party testing faucet [ Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012) ] [ Guangzhou Grg Metrology&Test Co.Ltd(002967) ], and pay attention to [ Pony Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300887) ]
Oil service equipment: the industry boom is picking up, and the certainty of increasing production and storage in China continues. Overseas economic recovery has led to the recovery of oil prices, and the global oil service equipment market continues to pick up; China's oil and gas supply and production policy increased, the capital expenditure of "three barrels of oil" accelerated, and the demand for oil service equipment increased steadily. China's fracturing equipment leader [ Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) ] with full orders and strong certainty of performance growth is recommended.
Risk warning: macro cyclical fluctuation risk; Infrastructure investment is lower than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The progress of localization of semiconductor equipment is less than expected; The technology change and downstream expansion of photovoltaic industry are less than expected; Oil price fluctuation risk.
