Industry: the declining rhythm of average weight of pig slaughter will become a "timer" for cycle reversal. The profit of pig breeding industry narrowed in December. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in December 2021, the average sales price of Sanyuan pigs at home and abroad was 16.6 yuan / kg, down 0.9 yuan / kg from November. The new year is approaching, the wax making and stocking festivals in the South and North are approaching the end, the bearing capacity of consumer demand on pig prices is weakening week by week, and the profit of the breeding industry is gradually narrowing in December.
From the perspective of industrial production capacity, according to the agricultural and rural data, the number of fertile sows in the industry decreased by 1.2% month on month in November and the average sales price of live pigs decreased month on month in December. It is expected that the number of samples monitored by the Ministry of agriculture of the industry in December will still maintain a downward trend. It is expected that in December, the industry's capacity removal rate will be in the range of 0.0% - 0.5%. By the middle of January, the average sales price of pigs in the industry had fallen below the industry cost line, and the industry would fall into a loss again. It is expected that the pig price will fall further after the year, and the inferior production capacity will show obvious signs of accelerated de industrialization at this stage. We expect that this round of industry capacity will be more than 15% higher than the high level from May to June 2021, supporting the price reversal of the new round of pig cycle.
After the Spring Festival, the change of average weight of pigs in the industry will become a key indicator affecting the rhythm of cycle reversal. If the weight of live pigs drops rapidly after the year, the excess supply of pork in the industry will be weakened, the decline of pig price may be weakened, and the range and rhythm of capacity de industrialization will be weakened; If the sentiment of holding down the column in the industry increases after the year (the expectation of cycle reversal is premature), the excess supply of pork in the industry will intensify in the first half of the year, or two trends will be deduced. One is to aggravate the range of short-term losses, so as to accelerate the pace or division of industrial capacity; The other is to lengthen the loss cycle of the industry, lengthen the time of capacity removal, and reverse the incubation cycle of the cumulative removal range (bottom grinding).
Enterprise: in 2021, the listed enterprises of pig breeding sold a total of 99.01 million pigs in 2013
As of January 16, 2021, major listed pig breeding enterprises have released pig sales data for December 2021 and the whole year of 2021. We selected 13 major listed pig breeding enterprises for statistics. In 2021, 13 enterprises sold a total of 99.01 million pigs, which is expected to account for about 14.6% of the total number of pigs sold in 2021, an increase of 3.7 PCT year-on-year. From the perspective of the growth rate of pig slaughter volume, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Luoniushan Co.Ltd(000735) all increased by more than 100% year-on-year. In 2021, the five enterprises sold 4026.3/430.8/324.6/92.0/394000 pigs respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 122.3% / 132.8% / 141.1% / 192.1% / 156.2%. From the perspective of the completion degree of the expected slaughter volume, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) have better completed the pig slaughter target set at the beginning of the year.
In December 2021, the number of pigs sold by 10 major pig breeding enterprises increased by 12.6% month on month
In December 2021, the sales volume of 10 major listed companies was 9.85 million, with a year-on-year increase of 23.9% and a month on month increase of 12.6%. Among them, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) listing volume and month on month variation range are respectively 5025000 / + 29.7%, 805000 / - 19.8%, 1072000 / + 18.5%, 1227000 / + 2.6%, 368000 / - 35.1%, 147000 / + 20.1%, 417000 / + 1.5%, 125000 / + 22.8% and 454000 / - 0.1%.
Risk tip: the prosperity of pig price is lower than expected, and the decline of breeding cost of listed companies is lower than expected.
