During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the market space of nuclear power equipment may reach 100 billion. Under the background of “carbon neutralization”, nuclear power will become an important part of base load energy in the future with its advantages of high energy efficiency, low pollution, environmental friendliness, large unit capacity and stable power generation. As of September 30, 2021, China’s installed capacity of nuclear power in operation is 53.49 million KW. According to the annual development and Prospect of China’s nuclear energy (2020) issued by the China Nuclear Energy Industry Association, China’s installed capacity of nuclear power in operation will reach 70 million KW by 2025, 30 million kW under construction, and a total of 200 million KW by 2035. Based on the installed capacity of 1 million KW per unit, nuclear power construction is expected to be promoted according to 7-8 units per year from 2022 to 2025. The annual nuclear power market space is about 82.5-135 billion yuan, of which the equipment market space is about 41.3-67.5 billion yuan / year. The total market scale from 2022 to 2025 is 164.8-270 billion yuan.
Nuclear island core equipment is still monopolized by state-owned enterprises, and private enterprises are more active in subdivided fields. Nuclear power equipment mainly includes nuclear island, conventional island and BOP. Nuclear island is the core of the whole nuclear power plant, and the investment and construction cost accounts for the highest proportion. At present, the reactor pressure vessel, main pipeline, heat exchanger and steam generator are still monopolized by state-owned enterprises. The threshold of main pipeline, nuclear grade valves, main pumps, nuclear motors and other parts and nuclear grade seals is relatively low. A few private enterprises can enter, but they still need strict qualification review. Based on the annual increase of 7.5 million KW units, the market scale of nuclear valve is about 4.9-7.8 billion yuan / year. It is recommended to pay attention to the nuclear valve leader Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) . For nuclear motors, pay attention to Harbin Electric Corporation Jiamusi Electric Machine Co.Ltd(000922) .
The market competition of conventional island equipment is relatively fierce, and the comprehensive localization rate is more than 85%. At present, the comprehensive localization rate of major second-generation improved nuclear power unit projects, such as Hongyanhe, Fuqing, Fangchenggang and other conventional islands, has reached more than 85%. In terms of subdivided fields, the key regulatory equipment fields such as conventional island steam turbine generator unit, steam water re separator and condenser are monopolized by Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) , Shanghai Electric Group Company Limited(601727) and Harbin Electric. The market competition in other equipment fields is relatively fierce, and the participation of private enterprises in non core equipment of conventional island such as valves, condensers and pumps is high.
Private enterprises in the field of BOP equipment have a high degree of participation. Nuclear power auxiliary system (BOP) is a part outside the steam supply system, mainly including nuclear power cable, air cooling system, ventilation system, reactor containment and nuclear power machinery and equipment. The Chinese government launched the marketization of nuclear tertiary equipment in 2015, and most private enterprises obtained design and manufacturing qualifications. Therefore, the participation of private enterprises in the field of auxiliary equipment is high and the market competition is fierce. Many private enterprises in the field of equipment have outstanding performance.
The demand for spent fuel reprocessing equipment may exceed expectations. Spent fuel is high-level radioactive nuclear waste. At present, China’s spent fuel reprocessing capacity is seriously insufficient. At present, the annual output of spent fuel per 1 million kw of nuclear power equipment capacity is about 21 tons. According to the data of China Economic Research Institute, the output of spent fuel in China in 2020 is 1298 tons, the cumulative spent fuel to be treated is about 8718 tons, and the post-treatment capacity of spent fuel is only 50 tons. Considering that the temporary storage capacity of spent fuel is close to saturation and the demand for spent fuel reuse is huge, the construction of spent fuel reprocessing capacity in China is expected to increase.
Investment suggestions: key recommendations for nuclear island and conventional island equipment Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical Co.Ltd(603308) , Sinoseal Holding Co.Ltd(300470) ; Key recommendations in the field of spent fuel reprocessing equipment Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) .
Risk warning: nuclear power start-up risk; The demand for nuclear power equipment is less than the expected risk; Nuclear safety accident risk
