From January to December 2021, the cement output was 2.363 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%; In December, the cement output was 191 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% and a month on month decrease of 4.37%. From January to December, the output of flat glass was 1.017 billion weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; In December, the output was 85.96 million weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Cement prices continued to fall; The price of glass fiber roving decreased slightly, and the price of electronic yarn decreased sharply; The price of raw materials has entered the downward range, and the marginal pressure has slowed down.
Cement industry: as the Spring Festival approaches, the demand weakens and the volume and price continues to decline: from January to December of 21 years, the cumulative cement output in China is 2.363 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%, and the cement output in a single month in December is 191 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.37%. The cement output continued to decline in December, mainly due to the slow progress of some projects, the increase of shutdown projects and the reduction of overall demand. In addition, near the end of the year, and affected by environmental protection control in some areas, many manufacturers stopped kiln maintenance, and the cement output contracted. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, at the end of December, the national cement clinker and P · O42 5 powder and P · S32 5. The average price of powder was 415.91, 495.97 and 471.94 yuan / ton respectively, down 18.2, 30.2 and 30.0 yuan / ton respectively compared with the end of November. At the end of December, the mill operating rate and clinker storage ratio were 45.0% and 56.1% respectively, down 9.44 PCT and 12.45 PCT month on month compared with November.
Glass industry: the output of glass increased slightly, and the price fell: in the whole year of 21, the output of flat glass was 1.017 billion weight boxes, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; In December, the output of flat glass was 85.96 million weight boxes, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% and a month-on-month increase of 2.84%. The output of glass increased slightly. At the end of December, the national average price of flat glass was 109.3 yuan / heavy box, down 2.1 yuan from the beginning of the month. The price rose slightly in the first two weeks of December, and the price of flat glass fell in December, mainly due to the weakening demand at the end of the year. It is expected that the completion end will pick up and the glass market demand is expected to increase with the arrival of spring after the year.
Glass fiber industry: alkali free yarn decreased slightly, and electronic yarn continued to decline: in December, the overall price of glass fiber industry fell, and the price of alkali free yarn remained at about 6200 yuan. At the end of December, the price fell slightly. At present, the national average price is 6180 yuan, and the manufacturers have strong willingness to support the price. Only a few enterprises have loose prices and small price changes. On the basis of the price reduction in November, the electronic yarn market saw a further sharp price reduction in December, with a price reduction rate of more than 2000 yuan / ton. At present, the average price is 12250 yuan / ton, a decrease of 25.8% compared with the price at the beginning of December. It is expected that the installed capacity of wind power in the medium term under the double carbon target will increase significantly compared with that during the 13th Five Year Plan period. The unit consumption and standard of glass fiber will increase under the trend of superimposing large blades, which is expected to boost the medium and long-term demand of glass fiber.
Raw material prices continued to decline: at the end of December, 7 of the 8 main upstream raw materials in the building materials industry decreased month on month, and only ethylene oxide remained relatively stable. Specifically, the price of soda ash decreased by 921.0 yuan / ton, a decrease of about 25%, and coal, crude oil and PVC also decreased significantly, with a month on month decrease of 9.9%, 8.7% and 8.5% respectively. The prices of ethylene oxide, waste paper and asphalt are relatively stable. In the first two weeks of January 22, the price of soda ash decreased significantly, and the current average price is 2379 yuan / ton. After the decline of coal price, it has been corrected, and the current average price is 1002.5 yuan / ton.
Key recommendation
Glass fiber recommends Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) and China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) for the integrated development of blades and glass fiber; The cement industry recommends central China leader Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , improved governance Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , and industry leader Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ; Waterproof recommendations Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) and Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is lower than expected, the pace of production capacity investment is accelerated, the fiscal pace is still slow, the real estate easing and infrastructure recovery are lower than expected, the industrial policy risk and energy consumption control lead to the weakness of both supply and demand, and the stable price of bulk commodities is lower than expected.
