Abstract: the high outlook continues and is fully optimistic about the oversold rebound
In December 2021, China's sales exceeded market expectations, and overseas sales continued to grow month on month. In December, China Automobile Association sold 530000 electric vehicles, exceeding market expectations, with a month on month ratio of + 114% / 11%. In 2021, it sold 3520000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 158%. In December, the Federation of passenger cars wholesale 505000 electric passenger vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 139% / + 18%, retail 475000, with a month on month ratio of + 129% / + 25%. In December, the wholesale penetration rate reached 21%, month on month + 1.4pct, and the retail penetration rate was 22%, month on month + 2pct. We expect that China will sell 6 million electric vehicles (including exports) in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 70%. In December, the total sales volume of nine mainstream European countries was 223000, with a month on month ratio of + 1% / + 21% and a penetration rate of 29.4%. The electrification trend accelerated. Under neutral assumptions, we expect that the sales volume of electric vehicles in Europe is expected to reach 2.7 million in 2022. In December, the United States sold 76000 electric vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 75% / + 5%. In 2021, 652000 electric vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 101%. New forces began to increase, and traditional car companies continued to make efforts. Under neutral assumptions, we expect the sales of electric vehicles in the United States to be 1.3 million in 2022, double year-on-year. In 2022, the global sales volume is expected to exceed 10 million vehicles and still maintain a high growth rate of 65% + 6%.
The demand for batteries is increasing rapidly, the midstream link continues to be tense, and the upstream lithium carbonate can support the terminal demand, which will be in tight balance in 2022. The three major fields of power, energy storage and electric tools of battery enterprises exceeded expectations. The shipment of the leading battery factory is expected to be 10% - 20% in 2022, and the shipment of the battery factory will more than double year-on-year in 2022. In the middle reaches, the tension of iron lithium positive pole, diaphragm, copper foil and negative pole will continue in 2022. We expect the tension of hexafluoride 2022h2 to ease. On the whole, the prosperity of the middle reaches of lithium battery will continue. The tight supply of lithium carbonate in the upstream has aroused market concerns. We estimate that the tight balance between supply and demand of lithium carbonate in 2022 can still maintain a 60% + growth in the sales volume of electric vehicles, and a 10-15% increase in the price of batteries can cover the rise in the cost of lithium carbonate, which corresponds to an increase of RMB 5000-10000 in the cost of automobile enterprises. Most automobile enterprises will bear the rise in costs and the decline in subsidies internally, which has little impact on the terminal demand. The downstream demand for lithium battery continues to be high. In January 2022, the production scheduling will increase by about 5% month on month. Enterprises will not have a holiday during the Spring Festival. We expect that the leading production scheduling in 2022q1 will be at least flat month on month compared with 21q4, the off-season is not light, and the boom will continue.
Investment suggestion: continue to look at the electric vehicle leader in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the battery link that has been profitable and repaired in 22 years, with a good long-term pattern, superimposed energy storage support, leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) . The second main line: battery technology upgrading, high nickel ternary cathode ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ) Lithium ferromanganese ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), additive ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The third is the leading companies that continue to be in short supply next year and have recently made more corrections: negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ), diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ), copper foil ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ), electrolyte ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ), lithium carbonate ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), etc.
Risk tip: price competition exceeds market expectations, raw material prices are unstable, affecting profit margins, declining investment growth and the impact of the epidemic.
