Steel:
The procurement volume of thread snails this week was + 5.79% month on month and – 7.25% year-on-year; The total output of the five varieties of steel was + 0.76% month on month and – 11.13% year on year; The total of social Treasury and factory Treasury was + 1.42% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of – 12.75%; Steel price index + 0.51% month on month; The gross profit of the four major steel varieties increased slightly month on month. The price of raw materials has increased. In the short term, the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games is expected to support the price profit, and the stable economic policy in 2022. The government’s position is relatively firm or leads to the improvement of demand margin. In the long term, we need to pay attention to the field of growth special steel.
Industrial metals:
The current price of LME copper / the current price of Yangtze nonferrous copper this week was + 2.96% / + 2.69% month on month; LME aluminum current price / Changjiang nonferrous aluminum current price month on month + 1.99% / + 0.62%. In terms of copper, high overseas inflation pushed up copper prices. In terms of aluminum, large European aluminum smelters plan to suspend operation, and the market is worried that supply is good for aluminum prices. In the short term, China has a firm attitude towards stabilizing the economy. Recently, the Ministry of finance has issued some new special bond lines in advance to ease the pressure of steady growth in the first quarter and is optimistic about the repair of industrial metal fundamentals.
New energy metals:
In terms of lithium, the price of lithium carbonate this week was + 1.59% month on month. The rising price of lithium confirms the current tight supply and demand and low inventory situation in the industry. At present, the lithium sector is constantly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound opportunities.
Rare earth:
The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide / dysprosium oxide / terbium oxide this week was + 1.98% / + 1.02% / + 8.09% month on month. It has long been optimistic about the pull of energy-saving motor policy on the demand for rare earth permanent magnet and the broad space of the industry under the new energy revolution.
Investment advice
Steel: it is recommended to pay attention to Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) (600019. SH); Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) (603995. SH), Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708. SZ) in special steel field; The favorable water conservancy policy is expected to be clear, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pipe company Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) (000778. SZ). Industrial metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388. SH), Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) (601600. SH). New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460. SZ) and Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466. SZ). Rare earth sector: it is recommended to pay attention to China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) (600111. SH), China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) (000831. SZ).
Risk tips
Raw material price fluctuation risk, lower downstream demand than expected risk, covid-19 epidemic spread than expected risk.
