In December 2021, the CR8 index of the whole industry decreased slightly month on month. In December 2021, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 10.25 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 5.8 PCT month on month; The business income reached 91.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%, and the month on month growth rate changed from positive to negative; The revenue of full caliber single ticket was about 8.95 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month decrease of 5.6%. The low data of express revenue in December 2021 is caused by individual brand enterprises standardizing the revenue caliber and adjusting the annual data. After deducting the adjustment factors of individual brand enterprises, the overall unit price of express business in December is 9.70 yuan / piece. In December 2021, the CR8 index of express industry was 80.5, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7 and a month on month decrease of 0.2. On the whole, although the average single ticket revenue of the express industry has maintained a downward trend since 2021, the CR8 index remained unchanged from June to October 2021, and the slight decline in November and December reflects the gradual rationalization of the overall price war of the industry.
In December 2021, the average single ticket revenue of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) and Guangzhou decreased month on month. In December 2021, the average single ticket income of express business in Zhejiang Province was about 5.60 yuan, a month on month decrease of 0.12 yuan, and the average single ticket income of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) region was about 3.09 yuan, a month on month decrease of 0.22 yuan; The average single ticket income of express business in Guangdong Province was about 7.58 yuan, a month on month decrease of 0.40 yuan, and the average single ticket income of express business in Guangzhou was about 6.68 yuan, a month on month decrease of 0.36 yuan.
In December 2021, the proportion of physical online shopping agencies decreased month on month. In December 2021, the total amount of social zero in China increased by 1.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 2.2pct month on month; Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 5.5pct month on month; The proportion of physical online shopping cooperatives (online retail sales of physical goods / total national social retail sales) was 24.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.04pct. Overall, the zero growth rate of physical online shopping agencies slowed down significantly in 2021, and the annual cumulative growth rate was 12.0%, lower than the growth rate in the same period of 19 and 20 years (19.5% and 14.8%); In the whole year, the proportion of physical online shopping agencies was 24.5%, slightly lower than that in the same period of the previous year (24.9%); However, the growth rate of express business volume in the whole industry remains at a high level. The cumulative growth rate in 2021 is 29.9%, which is lower than the growth rate in the same period in 2020 (31.2%) and still higher than the growth rate in the same period in 2019 (25.3%).
In December 2021, Tongda express company’s single ticket revenue decreased month on month. In December 2021, the business revenue growth of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) was 8.8%, 24.7%, 20.0% and 25.3% respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 22.0, + 23.5, + 1.9 and + 34.7pct respectively; The market shares of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in the current month were about 9.2%, 17.9%, 15.4% and 11.3% respectively, an increase of 0.09, 1.3, 0.04 and 0.81pct respectively compared with the previous month. In December 21, the monthly single ticket income of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong was 16.43 yuan, 2.35 yuan, 2.50 yuan and 2.44 yuan respectively, with a month on month change of + 0.61 yuan, -0.03 yuan, -0.09 yuan and -0.02 yuan respectively, and a year-on-year change of -0.07 yuan, + 0.11 yuan, + 0.29 yuan and + 0.11 yuan respectively. On the whole, although the single ticket revenue of Tongda company increased year-on-year in December of 21, it decreased compared with the peak season in November.
Investment suggestion: with the introduction of the measures for the administration of express market (Revised Draft), the disorderly competition in the industry will be further alleviated, and the express enterprises will obviously benefit; As the price war in the industry slows down, the single ticket income of some express companies continues to improve, promoting profit recovery; We believe that the price war in the industry is slowing down or will continue to be verified, and the profit improvement potential of head express companies is greater. We maintain the industry’s “overweight” rating, recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and suggest paying attention to Zhongtong Express (H) and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) .
Risk analysis: the macroeconomic downturn leads to the decline of express demand; The growth of e-commerce was lower than the market expectation, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of express demand; The penetration rate of online shopping increased slowly; The competition in the express industry exceeded expectations, resulting in a sharp decline in single ticket revenue.
