In December, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.2%, and the Shenwan automobile index fell by 4.8%. The short-term performance was weaker than the market. In December, 2.786 million vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.6% and a month on month increase of 10.5%; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.422 million, and the chip supply eased, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 2.0% and a month on month increase of 10.5%; The sales of 364000 commercial vehicles decreased by 20.1% year-on-year and 10.5% month on month. Trucks and buses decreased year-on-year, and heavy trucks decreased significantly. It is expected that it is mainly due to the demand overdraft caused by the implementation of national six year plan. In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 531000, with a year-on-year increase of 113.9%. It continues to refresh the production and sales record of the current month, and the penetration rate is as high as 19.1%. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the industrial chain.
Main points
In December, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars achieved positive growth on a month on month basis. According to the data of the passenger Federation, in December, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 2.366 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, a month on month increase of 10.0%, and the retail sales volume reached 2.105 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% and a month on month increase of 15.9%. The demand for passenger cars remains strong, and retail sales continue to increase month on month; The chip has eased in the short term, and the wholesale sales volume has increased year-on-year. However, the combination of chip shortage and repeated epidemic in China is still an important restrictive factor for production and sales. The subsequent gradual mitigation is expected to promote the growth of production and sales. It is suggested to make a positive layout. In December, the retail sales of luxury cars decreased by 3% year-on-year and increased by 18% month on month. The demand for high-end replacement brought by consumption upgrading is still strong. Mainstream joint venture brands decreased by 19% year-on-year and increased by 19% month on month, which is expected to be related to the relatively large impact of chip shortage. Independent brands increased by 4% year-on-year and 12% month on month. Independent head enterprises have strong industrial chain toughness and effectively resolve the pressure of chip shortage. In addition, new energy sales have performed well. Byd Company Limited(002594) , GAC Toyota and other auto companies performed relatively well, so it is recommended to pay continuous attention.
In December, the production and sales of commercial vehicles continued to be under pressure in the short term. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales of commercial vehicles in December were 364000, a year-on-year decrease of 20.1%. Among them, 311000 trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%; Affected by the full implementation of national VI emission in July 2021, some demands are overdrawn in advance, so the sales volume is under pressure in the short term. In the long run, the treatment of “large ton and small standard” will reduce the single vehicle capacity of the original light truck models exceeding the standard, which is expected to increase the sales of compliant light trucks and medium trucks. The sales of passenger cars were 54000, down 13.6% year-on-year. The sales of large, medium and light passengers were basically the same month on month, and the year-on-year decline of large passengers was relatively small. With the improvement of China’s epidemic situation and economic recovery, it is expected that the subsequent sales of large and medium-sized buses are expected to recover gradually.
In December, the sales volume of new energy vehicles doubled year-on-year and continued to set a new record. In December, 531000 new energy vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 113.9%, continuing to refresh the production and sales record of the current month. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 498000, with a year-on-year increase of 120.6% and a penetration rate of 20.6%; Among them, Byd Company Limited(002594) Han / Qin / song, Tesla Model 3 / Y and Wuling Hongguang miniev are popular, which makes Byd Company Limited(002594) , Tesla and SAIC GM Wuling perform well, and relevant auto enterprises and industrial chains are expected to benefit. The sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 33000, with a year-on-year increase of 46.6%; The sales of 10280 new energy buses above 7 meters were increased by 107.2% month on month, of which Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Zhongtong Bus Co.Ltd(000957) and CRRC electric sales ranked among the top three. In 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles will be 3.521 million (+ 157.5%), and the follow-up is expected to continue to grow rapidly. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in relevant industrial chains.
From January to October, the revenue and profit of the automobile industry increased slightly. According to the data of China Automobile Association, from January to November 2021, the key enterprise groups of automobile industry realized an operating revenue of 3588.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; The total profit was 280.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. With the gradual recovery of the auto market, the operating revenue and total profit are expected to maintain growth, but the cumulative growth rate may decline.
Investment advice
Complete vehicle: the sales volume of passenger vehicles has picked up, but the differentiation of vehicle enterprises has intensified. It is recommended to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) . Commercial vehicle heavy truck and light truck are expected to maintain a high boom, paying attention to Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) .
Parts and components: with the recovery of automobile sales, the performance is expected to recover and form a double-click with the valuation. It is recommended to lay out individual stocks for product upgrading, customer expansion and undervalued repair, recommend Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , and pay attention to Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Weifu High-Technology Group Co.Ltd(000581) , etc.
New energy: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to explode in 2022, with strong certainty of subsequent high growth. Recommend China’s leading Byd Company Limited(002594) , as well as Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) made by Tesla and Volkswagen MEB, and pay attention to Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , etc.
Intelligent Internet connection: ADAS and intelligent cockpit are rapidly infiltrated, and Huawei, Xiaomi and others accelerate industrial development. Recommend Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , and pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , etc.
Risk tips
1) the car sales volume is lower than expected; 2) Shortage and price increase of raw materials; 3) Substantial price reduction of products
