Core view: follow the vine and touch the melon, and the computer bull market can be expected
I. reviewing the launch of computer market in 12-15 years, we sorted out 8 clues:
1. Major events in the capital market: in the third year after the establishment of the gem, the computer bottomed out and the bull market started. 2022 is the third year after the establishment of the science and innovation board
2. Data: the explosion of mobile Internet in 12-15 years has led to a data explosion, and the meta universe has led to a new round of data explosion in 21 years
3. Mobile terminals: in the past 11-13 years, the number of smart terminals represented by smart phones has increased, and in the past 21 years, the number of new smart terminals represented by smart cars and VR has begun to increase
4. Events: the “prism gate” incident in 13 years and the Huawei sanctions incident in 18 years
5. There were nearly 100 million 4G users in China in 2014 and more than 100 million 5g users in 2020
6, mobile payment: the number of Alipay users in 13 years is over 100 million, and the number of RMB users in 22 years is over 100 million?
7. Policy: 14 years of “mass entrepreneurship and innovation”, 22 years of “digital economy”
8. Liquidity: marginal margin of liquidity in 13-15 years and expectation of interest rate reduction in 22 years
II. How to judge the main line of the computer industry in the past 22 years?
We believe that under the general policy of digital economy in the past 22 years, we should sort out the main line of investment from the following aspects: [1] we need to make up lessons quickly, such as energy, power and other informatization and digital; [2] Need to speed up to form comparative advantages Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , such as smart cars and digital RMB; [3] Help industrial upgrading, such as industrial software and industrial Internet; [4] Implement localization and autonomy, such as basic software and Xinchuang. [recommended target]: Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Dongfang Electronics Co.Ltd(000682) , Beijing Forever Technology Co.Ltd(300365) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Shenzhen Sunline Tech Co.Ltd(300348) , Zwsoft Co.Ltd(Guangzhou)(688083) .
[risk warning] policy support is not as expected; The volume of intelligent terminals is less than expected; Epidemic factors, etc.
