The volume and price in 2021 are higher than our expectations. We are optimistic about the large-scale demand in 2022 and the medium and long-term! 2021 is the first year of PV parity in the whole year, but the prices of upstream raw materials such as industrial silicon, silicon material, EVA particles and IGBT are rising, the prices of components and EPC system remain high, and the game atmosphere of the industrial chain is strong, resulting in large fluctuations in production scheduling. However, the demand in 2021 is much higher than our expectation, and the installed capacity in China is expected to exceed 60GW, including 20GW + for household use and 9gw + for Industry and commerce. Under the background of rising prices, the installed capacity still exceeds our expectation. With the superposition of the market expectation of rising electricity prices, the medium and long-term growth space of the industry will be further opened. In 2022, more than 150000 tons of new silicon material capacity will be released in H1, opening the industrial chain and reducing prices substantially. China’s comprehensive parity has been opened, and a “1 + n” policy system centered on 3060 has been gradually established. N supporting policies, such as the promotion of the whole county, large scenery base and carbon emission reduction support tools, have been gradually implemented to support the completion of the 3060 goal. Overseas electricity prices are rising, and the acceptance of photovoltaic prices is high. In addition, the EU will reduce carbon emission by 55% in 2030, neutralize carbon in 2050, and the United States will have carbon free power in 2035 and neutralize carbon in 2050. New energy shows a continuous growth trend. We expect that in 2022, China’s installed capacity demand will reach 80gw +, with an increase of 35%, of which the distributed market will still grow rapidly. We expect that China’s household market demand will reach 30GW +, the industrial and commercial market demand will reach 15gw +, 140-160gw overseas, and the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 220-230gw, with an increase of 41%.
Silicon material: the silicon material industry has fully expanded its production, and the price has entered a downward cycle. However, the demand increased sharply in 2022, the average price per ton remained at 150000 yuan +, and the leading profitability is still strong; Silicon wafer: the new production capacity is gradually put into operation. In 2022, it will enter the stage of fierce competition. The profit of the industry will decline rationally, but the profit toughness of the leader is strong, and the trend of large size and flake is relatively certain; Battery: in 2022, the high demand will bring profit repair, the large-scale trend will bring structural opportunities, the production capacity of n-type battery will be gradually implemented, and new technologies will begin to break the situation; Components: in 2022, some high price orders are still executed, and the price reduction of silicon materials has led to a rapid decline in costs, benefiting from the double rise of industry volume and profit, the strong certainty of integrated leading shipment and profit, and the further improvement of shipment Cr5; Inverter: the high growth of the distributed market has led to the improvement of inverter structure, the shortage of chips is good for the leader, China’s leader is of high quality and low price, and the rapid growth of energy storage has brought new growth points; Tracking support: in 2022, the bad will be exhausted, and the profitability will be repaired quickly. In the long run, the penetration of domestic substitution + tracking support will increase double dividends; Adhesive film: the demand for photovoltaic is large, and the adhesive film manufacturers may enjoy part of the premium, ushering in a double rise in volume and profit. In the long run, the proportion of high-end products will increase and the profit structure will be improved; Glass: the penetration rate of double glass continues to improve, the concentration of leading production expansion is further improved, and large-scale production capacity is relatively scarce, enjoy a premium, and the profit structure is improved. Strongly recommend: Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , Xinjiang Daqo New Energy Co.Ltd(688303) , Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) , Xinyi optical energy, Jingke energy, Atlas, Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Changzhou Almaden Co.Ltd(002623) , Cybrid Technologies Inc(603212) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) , etc.
The inflection point of energy storage economy has arrived, a number of support policies outside China have been intensively implemented, and the trillion blue ocean market space is broad! The cost of energy storage system will be reduced to about 1.5 yuan / wh in 2021, which is the turning point of energy storage economy. We predict that the new energy storage demand will reach 536gw / 1575gwh by 2030, with a compound growth rate of 55% from 2021 to 2030, including about 176gw / 534gwh in China, and a compound growth rate of 61% from 2021 to 2030. Policies are implemented intensively and frequently, and the direction of follow-up policy support is clear. China’s energy storage industry is booming, promoting technology cost reduction + overseas expansion, and the supply chain will fully benefit. Energy storage inverters and integrators ( Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ), energy storage batteries and integrators ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) ) are recommended, Materials ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Atlas Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Fujian Yongfu Power Engineering Co.Ltd(300712) , Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , etc.
Risk tips: intensified competition, power grid consumption problems, restrictions, policy changes, etc
