\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (603300)
Core view
Multi category expansion of equipment leasing, and aerial work platform is the biggest driving force for performance: the company started from structural steel support business and gradually developed into a multi category business including aerial work platform leasing / building support equipment leasing / underground repair and maintenance business. Building support equipment includes civil steel support / climbing frame / aluminum alloy formwork / turnbuckle, etc. Most subdivided industries have steady growth and stable profitability. In 20 years, the rental income of construction support equipment accounted for 55%. It is expected that the rental business of aerial work platform will become the largest sector, and the income in 23 years is expected to account for 59%. In the company's performance pre increase announcement, the company disclosed that the net profit attributable to the parent / deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent in 21 years was RMB 480 / 462 million, yoy + 48.7% / + 75.14%. We think it is mainly due to the rapid development of aerial work platform leasing business.
China's aerial work platform rental market has huge expansion space: compared with scaffold, aerial work platform has better economy and higher safety. The core reason for its rapid growth is the increase of penetration rate, which is not closely related to new buildings. The business model of aerial work platform is mainly leasing. By the end of the 20th century, the number of leased equipment in China accounted for 82% of the total market. The market share of the top three Lessors in the industry exceeds 50%, the industry concentration is far higher than that of the general leasing industry, and the competition situation is good. It is estimated that the number of Chinese high-altitude work platform lessors will reach 319 / 93000 units in 21 / 25 years, and CAGR + 31% in 21-25 years. Compared with 17-21 years, CAGR + 52% has decreased, but it is still a rare high scenery subdivision track in the mechanical engineering leasing market. Assuming that the 25-year rental to sales ratio is stable in about 3 years, the shear fork / arm rental price is reduced by 37% / 47% respectively compared with 20 years, and the annual income of China's aerial work platform rental market still reaches 28.7 billion yuan.
The incentive mechanism is in place, and the light capitalization and digitization are the new focus of its future development. The company has implemented three restricted stock incentive plans in 18-20 years, and its performance meets the unlocking conditions. At present, it has basically exercised its rights. Due to the low exercise price, it has played a good incentive role for the core management / technical personnel. In the past 21 years, the company implemented the employee stock ownership plan and phase 2 equity incentive plan again, demonstrating the company's confidence in future performance. As the leasing business is an asset heavy model, the company has begun to try the asset light model, and has established a joint venture with thermolink group to apply it to the inventory deduction business, which is expected to be copied to the aerial work platform in the future. In addition, the Optimus system developed by the company has been launched to improve the efficiency of business process management. The company recently recruited new executives from Ali to further enhance the information construction
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect that the company's EPS will be 0.53/0.83/1.06 yuan / share in 21-23 years and CAGR + 44% in 20-23 years. Its high growth mainly comes from the aerial work platform leasing business, and other businesses will maintain steady growth. According to the 22-year average PE valuation level of comparable companies, the corresponding target price is 16.6 yuan, which is covered for the first time and given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
There is a risk that the rental price of aerial work platform will decline more than expected, and the purchase is less than expected. The change of assumptions will affect the risk of calculation results
