\u3000\u3000 Bafang Electric( Suzhou) Co.Ltd(603489) (603489)
Key investment points
The performance forecast profit in 2021 is + 49 ~ 54%, which is in line with our expectations. The company released the performance express for 2021. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 600 ~ 620 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.1 ~ 54.1%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 550 ~ 570 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.6 ~ 53.0%. Quarterly, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 166 ~ 186 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 72.9 ~ 93.8% and a month on month increase of + 32.8 ~ 48.8%. The performance forecast met our expectations.
The epidemic has changed the mode of travel, the demand for overseas electric bicycles has increased, and China's domestic market has begun to increase. 1) Overseas, the global demand for electric bicycles is increasing rapidly: according to conebi, in 2020, the sales of electric bicycles in Europe was about 5.1 million, with a year-on-year increase of more than 50%; The US market sold 500000-600000 vehicles, doubling year-on-year; The Japanese market increased steadily. Since 2021, the overall demand for overseas electric bicycles has been growing rapidly. We expect that the global demand will still grow by more than 30% in 2021. 2) In China, traditional electric two wheeled vehicle enterprises such as Yadi and Emma have begun to enter or layout bicycle products. At the same time, shared bicycle manufacturers such as hello have also begun to layout shared bicycles. At present, they are in mass production, driving the domestic market.
In 2021, the overseas demand increased rapidly, shared the large volume of customers, and the products switched to high-end central motor. 2021q4 continued to maintain a high momentum. We estimate that the company's overall revenue will maintain rapid growth in 2021, mainly from: 1) the high demand for overseas electric bicycles and the improvement of European market share. Compared with foreign counterparts, the supply capacity of the eight parties is stronger and the customer stickiness is increased. At the same time, after the normalization of the epidemic in 2021, the company gradually sent more employees abroad to promote the development of new products; Make use of the advantages of local employees of subsidiaries in the Netherlands, Poland and the United States + set up three new service companies covering Italy, Denmark and France to ensure response speed, brand value and service quality; For the overseas business of 2021q4 company, we estimate that the revenue volume will reach 460-520 million yuan; 2) China's business continues to expand in 2021q4, and the increment mainly comes from Tianjin, the company's main subsidiary in the domestic market such as shared vehicles. However, it is estimated that the gross profit margin of this sector is currently low.
The industry demand is better + the pressure on the supply side is reduced, and the revenue is expected to continue to grow well in 2022. Looking forward to 2022, there is still much room for improvement in the penetration of electric bicycles in the mainstream European market. The penetration trend in the North American market has just begun and is expected to maintain a high increase. The demand growth is driven by the sharing of bicycles in the Chinese market. On the supply side, with the resumption of the core parts project of electric bicycle in Malaysia and the commissioning of Shimano Singapore plant in early 2022, the tight supply of electric bicycle industry chain is expected to be greatly alleviated. In 2022, the global production and sales of electric bicycles are expected to maintain rapid growth, the development of eight party customers is accelerated, and the production capacity is expected to increase simultaneously, which is expected to maintain rapid growth.
The profit of 2021q4 increased month on month. We expect the profitability of the company to improve. There is great pressure on raw materials in 2021q1-3, and it is expected to recover gradually from 2022. The gross profit margin of 2021q1-3 was 34.26%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.30pct, and the net profit attributable to parent company / net profit deducted from non parent company increased in 2021q4. We expect that the profitability of 2021q4 will recover month on month, and the profitability is expected to improve in 2022, which comes from: 1) the change of product structure, the increase in the proportion of high gross profit products such as high-end mid set motors, and the company has moved into a new factory at the end of September 2021, With the new plant capacity climbing + constantly tackling key technical difficulties, the company's profitability will be repaired; 2) Against the background of the rising prices of motor raw materials such as copper, rare earth and chips, the company made positive response by using its strong operation and management ability. Firstly, it hedged part of the impact through price adjustment. We expect that the positive impact of the company's price increase strategy will be reflected in 2021q4; At the same time, the company directly connects with the original chip factory + determines the chip backup scheme to ensure the company's product supply capacity and gradually improve the viscosity of downstream customers.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering the company's high barriers, high growth and high profitability, we basically maintain the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-23 to be 607 million yuan, 977 million yuan and 1365 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 51%, + 61% and + 40% respectively, corresponding to the current price PE of 45.65x, 28.36x and 20.29x respectively, and give the target price of 308.56 yuan, corresponding to 38 times of PE in 2022, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: competition intensifies, policies are less than expected, etc
