\u3000\u3000 Autek China Inc(300595) (300595)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 520-607 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 20% - 40%; The non net profit deducted was RMB 457-536 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15% - 35%.
Repeated outbreaks and high base affect Q4 performance, and it is expected to return to normal growth in 22 years. According to the performance forecast, the median net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be 563 million, with a year-on-year increase of 30%; The median deduction of non net profit was 496 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25%, of which non recurring profits and losses were mainly financial income, government subsidies and disposal of equity income of subsidiaries, about 67 million yuan. In the fourth quarter alone, the median net profit attributable to the parent company of Q4 in 2021 was 120 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.76%; The median net profit after deduction was 111 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72%. In the first half of 2020, the epidemic had a serious impact, and some optometry needs were deferred to the second half of the year, resulting in a high performance base of the company in 2020q4. If Q4 in 2019 is taken as the control, the compound growth rate of the median net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is 24.59%, still maintaining a rapid growth. In addition, since the company's restricted equity incentive plan is lifted in the fourth quarter, the current income tax expense can be deducted, which is about 42 million yuan lower than that in the same period of 20 years. At the same time, the apportioned expense of the equity incentive plan is about 6 million yuan higher than that in the same period of 20 years. If the impact is excluded, the annual net profit attributable to the parent and net profit deducted from non net profit in 2021 will increase by 45% and 40% (median) respectively year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent in the fourth quarter The net profit deducted from non profits increased by 18.95% and 20.32% respectively year-on-year.
Looking forward to 2022, the dual advantages of product + channel will drive the rapid volume of the company's corneal shaping lens, and the integrated optometry service provider will continue to evolve. The company's products are industry-leading in comprehensive performance, and are the only products that can be applied to patients with 500-600 degree myopia. At the same time, the company can meet the different needs of people due to individual differences through personalized customized services, and provide safer and more effective products. In terms of channels, the company continues to expand its sales scope through investment and self construction, and gradually layout terminal medical services to further strengthen its control over the terminal. In the first half of 2021, the company added more than 40 terminal service outlets, including visual center, outpatient service and clinic, and about 300 visual service terminals have been built in total. Nearly 100 new cooperation terminals have been added, and the total number of terminals that have established cooperation relations has exceeded 1200. Previously, the company issued a fixed increase plan, which plans to add 1348 optometry service terminals in key provinces such as Anhui and Jiangsu, and the comprehensive optometry service capacity is expected to be further improved. We believe that with the increasing integrity of the company's terminal service network, it is expected to form a better synergy with the upstream optoelectronic devices.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.206 billion yuan, 1.592 billion yuan and 2.077 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 38.51%, 32.05% and 30.41%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 604 million yuan, 791 million yuan and 1.032 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.28%, 31.05% and 30.42%. Considering the high prosperity of the company's industry, strong consumption attributes, low penetration rate of the company's products in China and good competition pattern, it is expected to maintain rapid growth and "buy" rating in the future.
Risk warning: market competition intensifies the risk, raw material suppliers are relatively concentrated, and product marketing does not meet the expected risk.
