\u3000\u3000 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (000786)
Event: the performance forecast for 2021 was released on Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) January 19. The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company in the 21st year to be 3.43 ~ 3.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20% ~ 30.0%, with a median value of 3.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 is expected to be 710 ~ 1 billion, with a year-on-year ratio of - 16.8% ~ 16.7%, and the median value is 850 million, which is flat year-on-year. The company's performance is expected to rise in the same direction mainly due to the growth of the company's main product sales, operating revenue and net profit this year.
Comments: the median net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter was 850 million yuan, flat year-on-year. We believe that under the dual pressure of downward real estate demand and upward raw fuel cost in the second half of 21, the year-on-year growth rate of the company's performance in the fourth quarter stabilized and rebounded, reflecting the high-quality and steady development trend.
1) gypsum board business: it is expected that Q4 sales growth will continue to grow year-on-year and slow down month on month. It is expected that the short-term repair will be completed at the end of 21, and the growth rate may pick up from November to December. Relying on the advantages of central enterprises, Beixin's market share is expected to increase against the market, and with the decline of fuel costs such as coal, the net profit is expected to be flat month on month.
2) keel business: the sales volume is expected to be flat year-on-year, benefiting from the decline in the cost of raw materials such as galvanized steel (6357 yuan and 5706 yuan at the end of September and December respectively), and the gross profit margin has improved month on month.
3) waterproof business: the company pays more attention to risk control, and the sales volume maintains tenacity, steady and high-quality growth. It is expected to maintain double-digit growth year-on-year. On the cost side, the raw material side, due to the callback of asphalt price (3370 yuan and 3232 yuan at the end of September and December respectively), the gross profit margin may be improved month on month.
Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) point of view reiterated: gypsum board landscape and high-end resonance, strong pricing power; Waterproof, coating and keel provide growth; The global layout and management level are improved, and the valuation has high cost performance.
Gypsum board: in the medium and long term, gypsum board is the absolute leading brand to upgrade, further improve the proportion of medium and high-end products, further reflect the pricing ability, and build a deep moat with cost advantage. It is expected that the steady growth policy will continue to be promoted in the first half of 22 years, and the implementation of infrastructure projects is expected to accelerate. With the strategic cooperation of brand, technology, real estate and key customers, the company will accelerate the release of gypsum board demand in the tooling field, superimposing the increase in gypsum board price and the decline of raw fuel cost to contribute to performance elasticity.
The second growth curve of waterproof, keel and construction coating is clear: 1) light steel keel has strong coordination with gypsum board products, high coincidence between channels and customers, and the market space is higher than gypsum board. Although the supporting rate of Beixin keel is low, it started early and has brand and channel advantages. The company is increasing production capacity investment, customer cooperation and marketing. The medium and long-term production capacity planning is increased from 500000 tons to 1 million tons. It cooperates with leading real estate companies and top 100 decoration enterprises to strengthen the assessment of keel matching rate and channel sinking. 2) The non-standard products in the waterproof industry have large transfer space and low concentration. Beixin waterproof has the credit endorsement and financial strength of central enterprises, has the advantages of technology and R & D, and is expected to maintain high growth on the revenue side. Beixin has recently established a procurement alliance with Keshun and Karen, which is expected to complement each other's advantages, improve economy and reduce raw material fluctuations.
Profit forecast: gypsum board business maintains strong growth, and the second growth curve is clear. Due to the company's disclosure of annual performance forecast, we estimate that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 and 22 years is RMB 3.64 billion and RMB 4.7 billion (before adjustment), corresponding to 17 and 14 times of PE. We believe that the expected end of the real estate at the current time point has passed. It is expected that the first half of 22 will enter the steady growth infrastructure development cycle, the industry prosperity will be superimposed upward, the company's global expansion of production capacity, the high-end products and the accelerated layout of new businesses, the company's profitability and valuation have room to improve, and maintain the "buy in" rating.
Risk tip: the demand of downstream industries has fallen sharply; Gypsum board prices fell sharply; Overseas expansion is less than expected; Keel business expansion is less than expected; The expansion of waterproof field is less than expected.
