\u3000\u3000 Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials And Technology Co.Ltd(002171) (002171)
The performance is expected to double in 21 years. The company released the performance forecast for 2021 on January 12. It is expected that the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 550-600 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 100.55% - 118.78%; The non net profit deducted was 380 to 430 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.3% - 90.44%. The performance growth was mainly due to the increase in the production and sales of copper based materials and the strong demand for military carbon materials and special equipment downstream.
The steady development of the three businesses boosted the performance to a record high. In 2021, with the completion of the company's copper sector and strip capacity replacement and intelligent transformation, the annual output of copper based materials sector is about 650000 tons, ranking first in the country in market share, and the performance of copper based materials sector continues to grow. Tianniao hi tech raised investment capacity has been completed and put into operation, and actively explore the civil product market except military products. Aircraft carbon brake disc preform and thermal field material preform give the company a new profit growth point. The relocation of Dingli technology has been completed, and the thermal equipment with high added value and high gross profit has further enhanced the competitiveness of the company; Dingli technology is also being split and listed
The new capacity is gradually released, and the performance outbreak window is approaching. In the next 2-3 years, the company will continue to put in new production capacity. 50000 tons of high-precision copper alloy strip foil project, phase II and III (20000 tons) of high-precision copper alloy calendering belt reconstruction and expansion project and 300000 tons of copper conductor project are expected to be completed and put into operation in 2023, further consolidating the leading position of the company in the copper sector and strip industry; Wuhu Tianniao 1500 tons of thermal field materials will be gradually completed and put into operation, and the expansion of the company in the thermal field material industry chain will be completed; Tianniao hi tech plans to build new factories to further expand production capacity. With the gradual release of raised investment capacity, we expect the company's revenue scale to increase significantly in the future, and the performance outbreak window is coming.
Investment suggestion: as a leading enterprise in China's copper sector and strip industry, with the continuous release of new production capacity and the optimization of product structure, we expect the company's operating revenue to reach 45.634 billion yuan, 52.041 billion yuan and 72.788 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with EPS of 43, 53 and 69 respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the new production capacity is less than expected, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the copper processing fee decreases
