\u3000\u3000 Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073)
Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) issued a performance forecast, and the performance met expectations
The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1-1.05 billion in 2021, an increase of 159.81% - 172.80% over the same period in 2020. It is estimated that the net profit after deduction is 740-790 million yuan, and the corresponding net profit in the single quarter after deduction is 1.15/1.76/2.23/226-276 million yuan respectively. Among them, the gross profit margin in the second quarter was higher than that in other quarters (Q2: 22.61%, Q1 / Q3: 19.22% / 16.90%, Q4 is expected to be between 15% - 18%). Our analysis mainly included: (1) strong overseas demand (especially in Europe) and relatively high export product prices in the second quarter; (2) Use low-cost raw material inventory. With the continuous price rise of upstream nickel, cobalt, lithium and other resources since the third quarter of 2021, the company's gross profit margin is under slight pressure. We expect that the contradiction between supply and demand of scarce resources represented by lithium carbonate will be concentrated in Q1 2022. After the contradiction between supply and demand is alleviated, the profit margin of midstream manufacturers will return to the rising channel. We raised the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 1.038 (+ 1.12) / 14.46 (+ 2.30) / 1.859 (+ 465) billion yuan, EPS is 2.05/2.85/3.67 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 40.1/28.8/22.4 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Downstream demand is strong, and the company's products continue to be in tight balance between supply and demand
Product demand side: it is estimated that the company's single quarter shipment in 2021 will be about 0.89/1/1.3/1.3-18000 tons, and the total annual shipment will be 45000-50000 tons. The supply and demand are in tight balance, and some orders need to be produced by outsourcing manufacturers.
Capacity supply side: the capacity is expected to be 44000-50000 tons by the end of 2021, and the effective capacity is expected to be about 70000-80000 tons by the end of 2022 (50000 tons in Changzhou +, 18000 tons in Haimen, Jiangsu and a small amount in Yanjiao, Beijing). The state of short supply continues.
The upstream raw materials are guaranteed, the downstream demand is highly deterministic, and the growth of ternary leader is highly deterministic
Worry free supply of raw materials: Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) has signed cooperation agreements with two leading precursors ( Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) and Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) ) respectively to ensure the supply of medium and long-term precursors, and Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) can pick up goods at a competitive price.
Strong demand certainty of overseas manufacturers: the main overseas customers of dangsheng are SK and LG, which are the main suppliers of traditional American car companies Ford, GM and Chrysler. The growth rate of electrification in the global American market is expected to be the highest in 2022 (among the major developed economies), In addition, the government policy has additional subsidies for traditional car enterprises to sell electric vehicles (about 5000 US dollars), and Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) is expected to benefit. We expect to ship more than 80000 tons in 2022. If the net profit per ton is 15000 yuan, the corresponding net profit of Sanyuan cathode is expected to reach more than 1.2 billion yuan.
Risk tip: increased competition and decline in single ton profit
