\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) (300751)
Event:
The company issued the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 580 ~ 680 million yuan, yoy + 47.05% ~ 72.40%; The company realized a net profit of 540 ~ 640 million yuan, yoy + 59.54% ~ 89.08%. The company’s performance slightly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the high prosperity of the photovoltaic industry, which led to the steady increase in the sales of screen printing equipment.
21q4 performance forecast:
According to the profit center disclosed in the company’s announcement, assuming that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is 630 million, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 174 million, yoy + 45%.
Hjt on hand order calculation:
Since 2020, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) and its subsidiaries have successively won the bid for Huasheng 500mwhjt project, Tongwei Jintang 1GW middle line, Guangdong Golden Glass Technologies Limited(300093) 1.2gw hjt mass production line, Aikang 0.6gw heterojunction whole line equipment procurement, 1.8gw subsequent procurement intention, REC 400MW hjt battery whole line equipment order, etc. As of December 25, 2021, Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) heterojunction equipment orders on hand totaled about 1.8 billion yuan.
Heterojunction cost reduction and efficiency enhancement path can be expected
1) industry: in the next two years, with the decline of equipment cost and the addition of new enterprises in the industry + the release of production capacity, the growth space of hjt heterojunction may be broader. As the key material of battery metallization, the cost of silver paste accounts for a very high proportion of the cost of heterojunction battery. The breakthrough of steel sector printing technology plays an important role in reducing the consumption of silver paste.
2) the company: Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) has also continuously introduced new heterojunction cost reduction and efficiency enhancement technologies. The full opening steel sector printing technology introduced by Maiwei is an innovation of the traditional screen printing technology, which will further reduce the manufacturing cost of high-efficiency heterojunction Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery. At present, the cost of heterojunction battery is still higher than that of other batteries. According to our calculation, in terms of 166 size, the cost of heterojunction is about 1.25 wool higher than that of perc silver slurry per W. if the full open steel sector technology is successfully introduced, it is expected to reduce the cost of silver slurry by about 0.26 wool. If the grid line is further reduced, it is expected to further reduce the cost of silver slurry, So as to drive the heterojunction to discharge more quickly.
Profit forecast
We expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years to be 636 / 841 / 1191 million respectively, and the corresponding PE is 92 / 69 / 49x respectively, maintaining the buy rating!
Risk warning: the product price is affected by the price fluctuation of raw materials; The promotion speed of heterojunction equipment is lower than the market expectation; The photovoltaic demand is lower than the market expectation; The performance report is the preliminary calculation result, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the data disclosed in the company’s 2021 annual report
