\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (002709)
Events
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to reach RMB 2.100-2.300 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 294% – 332%. The net profit after deduction of non parent company is expected to reach RMB 2.059-2.259 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 290% – 238%.
Key investment points
Q4 delivery volume increased significantly, and the transmission of raw material price rise lagged behind
Q4 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 546-746 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3668% – 5048%, a month on month decrease of 29% – 3%; Q4 realized a net profit of 549-749 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4273% – 5868%, a month on month decrease of 26% – an increase of 1%. Mainly due to: ① the delivery volume of Q4 electrolyte is expected to reach more than 50000 tons (increased by 40% month on month +), and the self-produced 6F raw materials can not keep up with the rapidly growing shipment volume in the short term, and the self supply rate drops to about 70%. In order to maintain the market share, some raw materials are purchased externally (the purchase price is subject to the market, more than 500000 yuan / ton). At the same time, considering the long-term customer strategy, we take the initiative to bear part of the cost pressure, No downward conduction; ② The price of lithium carbonate Q4 has been adjusted, but the price will be increased only in 22q1, and the cost transmission also lags behind. ③ It is estimated that Q4 will be partially impaired.
The self supplied 6F capacity continues to climb, and the profitability will cross the inflection point
The 6F production capacity of 2022q1 company is expected to further climb to about 32000 tons. Under the effect of the Spring Festival, the 6F self supply rate is expected to increase to nearly 90%, and it is expected to maintain the self supply rate of more than 80% throughout the year. In the first half of 2022, the supply of 6F is still tight, the space for price adjustment of bulk orders is relatively large, the cost pressure Q1 can be moderately transmitted, and the unit profitability is expected to be repaired. In 2022, the company will increase the production capacity of 6F to 60000 tons through technical transformation, and is expected to put into operation another 50000 tons in 2023 to consolidate its leading position. On the basis of strategic cooperation with downstream major customers in the early stage, the company will superimpose the cost advantages brought by scale effect and process technology, and its profitability is expected to be guaranteed even at the bottom of the cycle. The company’s next-generation high-end product layout is at the forefront. Lifsi, odfp, odfb, solid-state battery electrolyte, etc. may become one of the company’s core competitiveness in the next stage.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will reach RMB 2.300/39.58/5.138 billion, corresponding to the current PE price of 39.75/23.09/17.79 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The release of production capacity is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the product price drops rapidly.
