\u3000\u3000 Cubic Sensor And Instrument Co.Ltd(688665) (688665)
Event: on the evening of January 19, the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual operating revenue in 2021 will be RMB 535-550 million, with a year-on-year increase of 73.75% – 78.63%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 175-185 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.16% – 119.00%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 168-178 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.88% – 120.26%.
Q4 performance continued to grow and profitability remained bright: the company’s performance continued to rise, with significant growth in revenue and profit, maintaining a growth trend. According to the forecast guidelines, Q4’s revenue in a single quarter was 156-171 million yuan, with a median year-on-year increase of 27.14% and a month on month increase of 12.91%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 52-62 million yuan, with a median year-on-year increase of 50.40% and a month on month increase of 16.56%; The net profit after deduction of non return to parent was 50-60 million yuan, with a median year-on-year increase of 60.35% and a month on month increase of 13.64%. The company continued to improve quality and reduce cost, the growth rate of net profit was higher than that of revenue, and its profitability was bright. Through self production of laser tubes, detectors, fans and other parts, independent research and development of chip and engine emission (O2 / NOx) sensor packaging, improvement of chip domestic substitution rate and other supply chain management and lean production measures, the company is expected to maintain low cost and further improve market competitiveness.
The demand in many downstream fields is released, and the product application scenarios are constantly expanded: according to the forecast, the company’s civil air quality gas sensor, on-board sensor, medical and health gas sensor and foreign trade business have maintained rapid growth year-on-year. The main reason is that on the demand side, with intelligence and energy conservation becoming the main consumption trend, the dual carbon policy is gradually implemented, and the market demand in downstream application fields is strong. At the same time, with the growth of production and sales of large customers, the market concentration of downstream customers in application scenarios such as fresh air system tends to increase. As an upstream manufacturer with stable batch supply capacity, the company is expected to improve the scale effect and benefit from the high prosperity of downstream market. The company actively expands the downstream application field of products and promotes business growth. According to the forecast, the downstream application fields of civil air quality gas sensors are expanded from environmental appliances to cleaning appliances, kitchen appliances, smart buildings, etc; The on-board sensor business has expanded to the field of power battery thermal runaway monitoring sensors. The downstream application field of medical and health gas sensor has expanded from ventilator and oxygen generator to anesthesia machine, monitor, high flow oxygen therapy instrument and other products, forming a relatively perfect medical and health gas sensor solution.
Each product line is promoted vertically, driving the continuous growth of performance: the gas sensor market has broad space, the company promotes the 1 + 3 strategy, “gas sensor + gas analysis instrument” two wheel drive, and the product line blooms at multiple points. The value of single analytical instrument is high, which is expected to become a profit growth point in the future. The thermal runaway monitoring sensor of power battery and the gas sensor of comfort system applied to new energy vehicles will gradually increase after the fixed point. According to the forecast and investor relations activity records in December, the on-board sensor business has achieved mass production. At present, the number of gas sensors required for the fixed-point of the on-board project is about 10 million. The fixed-point gas sensor project of automobile comfort system has maintained year-on-year growth, which is expected to further develop the new energy vehicle market. On board sensors dominated by AQM are expected to maintain growth. Ultrasonic gas meter and its module still have large domestic substitution space. At present, the self-produced and small-scale sales of ultrasonic gas meter module have been realized. According to the forecast, the main project of Jiashan Industrial Park, a raised investment project, has been completed and is expected to be put into use in mid-2022, laying a foundation for capacity release. High temperature sensor products are in the sample submission verification stage; Safety monitoring gas sensors such as refrigerant leakage monitoring and gas leakage monitoring have been promoted rapidly.
Investment suggestion: the company is the leader of gas sensor. With the continuous improvement of market scale and localization rate, we expect the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 567 million yuan, 840 million yuan and 1193 million yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 181 million yuan, 256 million yuan and 365 million yuan respectively, and EPS to be 258 million yuan, 366 million yuan and 522 yuan respectively, corresponding to 56 times, 40 times and 28 times of PE respectively, Maintain the “Buy-A” investment rating.
Risk warning: the risk of seasonal fluctuation of income; Risks of some core parts relying on outsourcing and overseas raw material procurement; Risk of exchange rate fluctuation; The risk of intensified market competition.
