\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659)
Event: Recently, the company issued a performance forecast for 2021, and realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.70-1.8 billion in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 154.63% to 169.61%.
Comments:
The company's performance grew rapidly. 21q4 of the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 470-570 million yuan, an increase of 3-25% month on month. The growth of performance is mainly due to 1) strong demand from downstream customers and rapid capacity expansion of the company; 2) The company has improved its profitability by reducing costs and increasing efficiency through integrated industrial chain layout and refined management.
Graphitization maintains a tight balance and benefits from the integration of negative electrode materials. In the medium and long term, due to the influence of dual control of energy consumption, the expansion of negative electrode graphitization industry is limited. Driven by the downstream demand of new energy vehicles, the supply and demand of graphitization is relatively tight, and the graphitization price rises from about 15000 yuan / ton in early 2021 to about 24000 yuan / ton at present. In the short term, due to the impact of the Winter Olympics, there is a risk that the capacity of Ulanqab, the core gathering place of graphitization capacity, will not be fully released. Under the background of tight supply and demand of graphitization in 2022, with the release of the company's Inner Mongolia phase II graphitization and other production capacity, the self supply rate of graphitization increases, and it is expected that the volume and price will rise together.
The industrial chain layout has accelerated and gradually grown into a platform enterprise of lithium battery materials. The company is a leading enterprise in artificial graphite, and continues to layout lithium battery equipment, PVDF, diaphragm, aluminum plastic film and other links. 1) in terms of PVDF, the holding subsidiary Ruyuan Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) fluororesin Co., Ltd. plans to build 20000 t / a PVDF and 45000 T / a R142b projects on the basis of the current 5000 t PVDF capacity. 2) Lithium battery equipment: as of the first half of 2021, the company's coating machine business (excluding internal orders) has placed orders of more than 3 billion yuan, and plans to invest 1.4 billion yuan to build lithium battery automation equipment project in Zhaoqing; 3) Diaphragm: the company is the largest independent coating diaphragm processor in China. In the first half of 2021, the shipment of coating diaphragm and processing accounted for 31.88% of the shipment of wet diaphragm in China in the same period. The company is expected to develop into a platform enterprise of lithium battery materials in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 9.307 billion, 13.769 billion and 17.541 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 76.2%, 47.9% and 27.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.711 billion, RMB 2.982 billion and RMB 3.866 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 156.3%, 74.2% and 29.7%. The current share price corresponding to PE is 58.75, 33.72 and 26.01 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the downstream demand is less than expected, the capacity expansion is less than expected, and the risk of technical route change.
