\u3000\u3000 Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) (002049)
Event: on January 18, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021: it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.9-2.1 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 136% – 160%; It is expected to realize a net profit of 1.7-1.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 144% – 173%; It is estimated that the basic earnings per share is 3.13 yuan / share – 3.46 yuan / share, compared with 1.33 yuan / share in the same period of last year.
Q4’s year-on-year performance increased significantly, and the annual performance exceeded expectations. The company takes intelligent security chips and special integrated circuits as its two main businesses, and simultaneously arranges the fields of semiconductor power devices and quartz crystal frequency devices to provide chips, system solutions and terminal products for mobile communication, finance, government affairs, automobile, industry, Internet of things and other industries. According to the performance forecast, the downstream demand of the company’s integrated circuit business is strong. The company makes every effort to ensure the delivery of orders. The special integrated circuit business has achieved rapid growth and contributed to sustained and stable profits. The profitability of the intelligent security chip business has been continuously improved, the performance has improved significantly compared with the same period last year, and the orders and production capacity have continued to rise. Q4 expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 443-643 million, with a year-on-year increase of 263.11% – 427.05%; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is 341-541 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 373.61% – 651.39%.
The performance of special integrated circuits and intelligent security chips, the main business, grew rapidly, taking advantage of the double dividend of “semiconductor + military industry”. The company is the leader of special integrated circuits in China, covering seven series of high-performance microprocessors, high-performance programmable devices, simulator devices, SOPC system devices and custom chips. According to the records of investor activities, the company’s synchronous SOPC platform products have been applied in batch, and some analog devices have been introduced into the market. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the demand for national defense equipment is strong, and national defense applications require high prices and high maintenance. FPGA has multiple advantages in performance, cost and maintenance. According to market research future, China’s FPGA market will reach 33.2 billion yuan in 2025, with a broad market space. The company’s smart security chips include smart card security chips and terminal security chips, and continue to focus on communication, finance, industry, automobile, Internet and other fields. According to the disclosure of the company’s investor activities, the global SIM card market pattern has changed, the main competitors have shrunk and withdrawn, the company’s share in the overseas medium and high-end market has gradually increased, and the multiple benefits such as 5g replacement tide in China’s SIM card market are good; From 2022 to 2023, there will be 10-year renewal of bank cards and 20-year renewal of ID cards; The company continues to layout the Internet of things, digital payment and other fields. According to Sullivan’s prediction, the scale of China’s smart card chip market is expected to reach 13 billion yuan in 2023, and the company’s smart security chip business is expected to maintain rapid growth.
Semiconductor power and quartz crystal frequency devices are expected to be in large quantities, and the automotive chip business is expected to become a new long-term source in the medium and long term. According to the records of investor activities, the export share of the company’s crystal business has reached 60%, focusing on China’s high-end market fields such as communication equipment. Through OEM cooperation, the company ensures the medium and low-end production capacity and expands some high-end product production lines. It is expected to be put into operation in 2022, and the production capacity of high-frequency miniaturized products for terminals such as 5g communication equipment is expected to be further guaranteed. The company’s semiconductor power devices are used in energy saving, green lighting, wind power generation, smart grid, electric vehicles, consumer electronics and other fields. With the easing of wafer capacity tension in the semiconductor industry, the business is expected to bring new growth impetus to the company. In addition, on the basis of passing the aec-q100 vehicle specification Level certification security chip, the company continues to layout the business related to vehicle chips. The company’s vehicle specification level security chips have been supplied in small quantities to well-known vehicle enterprises in China to ensure the information security of vehicles. The on-board controller chip has completed the sample development and started the road test, On July 14, 2021, it issued 1.5 billion convertible bonds for R & D and industrialization projects of new high-end security series chips. Benefiting from the “three modernizations” trend of the automotive industry, the company’s automotive chip business is expected to become an important growth source in the future.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.298 billion yuan, 7.417 billion yuan and 9.642 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.97 billion yuan, 2.829 billion yuan and 3.85 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 3.25 yuan, 4.66 yuan and 6.34 yuan respectively, corresponding to 69 times, 48 times and 35 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “Buy-A” investment rating.
Risk warning: product R & D is less than expected risk; Risk of intensified market competition; Wafer capacity shortage risk; Restructuring risk of controlling shareholders.
