\u3000\u3000 Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) (002597)
Core view
The performance growth is in line with expectations: the company released the performance forecast for 21 years, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 930-1.15 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 29.43% - 60.05%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction of non profits of RMB 798-1.042 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 39.99% - 82.8%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 220-440 million yuan, with a month on month increase of - 18.5% - 63%. The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 208-450 million yuan, with a month on month increase of - 5% - 100%. In the context of the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, the company's basic chemicals fully reflect the price elasticity, and the volume and price of fine chemicals rise together to show business resilience.
The price of sweeteners has risen sharply: the prices of sucralose and Acer honey have started from the first half of August 21. At present, the prices of sucralose and Acer honey have risen to 480000 / T and 88000 / T respectively, and the prices of reference 21 in the first half of the year are 205000 / T and 60000 / T respectively. Moreover, the increase of product price has been higher than that of raw materials in the early stage, making the company's 21q3 gross profit margin turn upward. We believe that the reason for the price rise has evolved from the simple push up of raw materials in the early stage to the tightening of supply and demand. In particular, sucralose, as the most mainstream artificial high-power sweetener at present, the global demand continues to grow. China's cumulative export volume from January to November this year increased by 30% year-on-year; In terms of supply, there is no new production capacity except for the gradual increase of the company's new 5000 tons. The industry structure of ansami is relatively stable, and the reliability of new production capacity of peers remains to be observed. Under the expectation of tight supply and demand, the bargaining power of the company is fully demonstrated, which will help to improve the long order price in the coming year. The cost side of raw materials is expected to be alleviated. The implementation of furfural and thionyl chloride upstream raw material supporting projects in Dingyuan base will further improve the cost advantage. Overall, the company will usher in a simultaneous rise in volume and profit in 22 years.
Boom peak or breakout inflection point: under the background of sharp rise in sweetener prices, it is difficult to overestimate the boom peak from the perspective of traditional cyclical investment, and the market also has concerns and differences. However, we believe that although the price is rising, the reason behind it is not a simple short-term mismatch between supply and demand, but the arrival of the upward inflection point of long-term demand outbreak. In the past decade, the proportion of low sugar / sugar free products in Coca Cola beverage product series has increased from 25% in 10 years to 45% in 19 years, and the sales volume of low card / zero card products has reached nearly 30%. Among its 20 best-selling brands, 18 have been low sugar or sugar free formulas; The market scale of sugar free drinks in China has more than doubled in 14-21 years, and the CAGR has reached 35%. Under the new consumption trend of healthy diet, the company's sweetener is entering a new growth track
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
Due to the significant increase in the price center of sweeteners, we predict that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be RMB 1057 million, RMB 1872 million and RMB 2204 million respectively (the original net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-22 years was RMB 1157 million and RMB 1416 million respectively). According to the price earnings ratio of 17 times that of the comparable company in 22 years, we give the target price of RMB 56.78 and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
Raw materials and price fluctuation risk; The release of new capacity did not meet expectations.
