\u3000\u3000 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) (000786)
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is expected to be 3.43-3.72 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% - 30%
The company released the performance forecast for 21 years. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.43-3.72 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20% - 30%, deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 3.34-3.63 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20.3% - 30.6%, corresponding to the median net profit of Q4 in a single quarter of RMB 854 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, deducting the median net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 816 million, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1%.
Sales volume drives performance improvement, and there is still room for growth in the main gypsum board industry
The company's revenue in the first three quarters increased by 31.5% year-on-year. It is expected to maintain an increase of about 30% throughout the year, mainly driven by the growth of sales volume. The prices of Q4 raw materials and fuels stabilized and fell. At the same time, the price increase of the company's products has been gradually implemented, and the gross profit margin is expected to increase month on month compared with Q3. The completed area of houses increased by 11.2% year-on-year in 21 years, providing certain support for demand. The real estate completed or still resilient in 22 years. With reference to the prediction of the real estate group, the completed area in 22 years is expected to increase by 4% year-on-year; On the other hand, in the context of the overall weakening of the new demand for commercial housing, the proportion of non housing demand such as affordable housing and factory buildings has gradually increased. At present, the residential sector accounts for only 30% of the downstream demand of gypsum board in China, and the decoration of commercial and public buildings accounts for 70%. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side will be less affected by the decline of commercial housing; In the medium and long term, on the one hand, with the reform and promotion of new lightweight wall materials and the improvement of people's awareness of energy conservation and environmental protection, the penetration rate of gypsum board in the residential field (mainly partition wall) is still expected to increase. On the other hand, the transformation and renovation of existing buildings and secondary decoration are expected to drive the gradual release of stock demand. The company has a market share of 60% in the gypsum board industry, with a production capacity of 2.8 billion square meters at the end of 20. It is expected to expand to 5 billion square meters during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there is still room for growth in the main industry.
The preliminary integration of waterproof sector has been completed, and the development of "one body and two wings" is expected to speed up
In the past 21 years, the company has completed the preliminary integration of waterproof sector, established Beixin waterproof Co., Ltd. as a platform for investment and operation of waterproof business, acquired the remaining 30% equity of Sichuan Shuyang, and jointly reorganized Chengdu Saite waterproof material Co., Ltd. (holding 70% equity) and Tianjin Binhai Aotai waterproof material Co., Ltd. (holding 70% equity), Further improve the layout of waterproof industry. In terms of coatings, it acquired 49% equity of Tianjin lighthouse coatings, took this as an opportunity to increase investment in the field of coatings, enrich coating business categories and improve R & D capacity with the help of Lighthouse coating technical advantages and industry accumulation. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the company plans to realize the layout of 30 waterproof bases and 20 coating bases. The development of waterproof and coating is expected to accelerate in 22 years, and the growth of "one body and two wings" can be expected.
The management adjustment injected new momentum into the company's development and maintained the "buy" rating
Recently, the management of the company is adjusting, which is expected to inject new momentum into the development of the company. With reference to the performance forecast, the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years is reduced to RMB 3.58/43.0/4.96 billion. (the previous value was RMB 3.79/4.54/5.34 billion). Referring to the valuation of comparable companies, we gave the company a 22-year 19x target PE with a target price of RMB 48.26, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the demand for commercial and real estate decoration has fallen sharply, and the integration efficiency of waterproof business is lower than expected. The performance forecast is the preliminary accounting result, which shall be subject to the annual report
