\u3000\u3000 Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 872 million yuan – 924 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 238% – 258%, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 322 million yuan – 373 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 81-94 times and a month-on-month increase of 29.91% – 50.75%. It is estimated that in 2021, the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be deducted from 753 million yuan to 789 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 316% – 336%, of which the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be deducted from 300 million yuan to 337 million yuan in 2021q4, with a year-on-year increase of 187-209 times and a month-on-month increase of 43.68% – 60.98%. The large year-on-year increase in the single quarter profit of 2021q4 is mainly due to the small current profit under the low gross profit margin of 2020q4 sales.
The volume and price of lithium salt business increased simultaneously, and the profit increased significantly. (1) Volume: the company has a capacity of 10000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate. In the first three quarters of 2021, the sales volume of lithium carbonate is 8158.4 tons, and the annual lithium salt capacity may be basically released. (2) Price: the average price of battery grade and industrial grade lithium carbonate in 2021 was 121300 yuan / ton and 115400 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 175.7% and 296.8%. The average prices of 2021q4 battery grade and industrial grade lithium carbonate were 209800 yuan / ton and 191100 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 377.9% and 400.2%, and a month-on-month increase of 91% and 87.6%.
In 2022, 20000 tons of smelting capacity will be added, and the performance elasticity can be expected. (1) Smelting end: the lithium battery phase II project with an annual output of 20000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate and supporting mining, beneficiation and comprehensive utilization projects are under construction. It is expected to put into operation 10000 tons of production lines in 2022q1 and 2022q2 respectively. (2) Resource side: the company has more than 52 million tons of lithium mica resources (equivalent to 440000 tons of LCE). At present, 1.2 million tons of mining and beneficiation capacity has been put into operation. The 1.8 million tons / year mica beneficiation project is under plant infrastructure construction. The supporting 3 million tons of mining project for technical transformation and expansion will also be expanded and submitted for approval after the EIA approval. The high resource ownership rate is expected to accelerate the release of the company’s performance.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to achieve operating revenue of RMB 8.695 billion, RMB 12.695 billion and RMB 13.881 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, and net profit of RMB 914 million, RMB 3.51 billion and RMB 4.012 billion respectively, corresponding to EPS of RMB 2.25, 8.65 and 9.88 yuan / share respectively. At present, the corresponding PE share price is 46.8, 12.2 and 10.7 times. “Buy-A” rating was given for the first time, and the six-month target price was 129 yuan / share.
Risk tip: lithium price is lower than expected, demand is lower than expected, project progress is lower than expected, and shareholders reduce their holdings.
