Event:
On January 17, 2022, the National Bureau of statistics released the fixed asset investment data for December 21. From January to December 2021, the cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment was 4.9%, and the previous value (from January to November) was 5.2%; The cumulative growth rate of real estate development investment was 4.4%, and the previous value (January November) was 6.0%.
Comments:
From January to December of 2021, the cumulative investment in broad infrastructure construction was + 0.2% year-on-year, and + 3.8% year-on-year and + 11.0pcts month on month in December alone; The cumulative infrastructure investment in the narrow sense was + 0.4% year-on-year, and - 0.6% year-on-year in December alone, with a chain comparison of + 3.0pcts.
In the broad / narrow sense, the monthly growth rate of infrastructure construction rebounded, showing a trend of high before and low after 22 years.
In December, the year-on-year growth rate of broad / narrow infrastructure in a single month was significantly higher than that in the previous month, or it was mainly due to the gradual formation of physical workload after the funds were in place. The capital side has obviously warmed up. In December, social finance was + 37.8% year-on-year and + 16.1pcts month on month, of which the amount of government bond financing was + 63.8% year-on-month and - 40.1pcts month on month.
At the industry level, the monthly investment growth rate of electric water heating, transportation, warehousing, postal and water conservancy public facilities was + 8.1%, + 7.1% and - 0.3% respectively, compared with the previous month's chain of + 9.5pcts, + 16.6pcts and + 7.7pcts respectively; In the fixed asset investment, the investment in education, health and social work was + 37.1% and + 8.0% respectively in a single month on a year-on-year basis, with a month on month comparison of + 33.0 PCTs and - 5.6 PCTs. Combined with the growth rate of investment in water conservancy and public facilities, education, health and social work, it is judged that local government finance is making efforts.
We judge that benefiting from the recovery of capital, the growth rate of infrastructure in the first half of 22 years may pick up, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the whole year of 22 years may show a trend of high before low.
From January to December 2021, the newly started area increased by - 11.4% in total, by - 31.1% in December alone, and by - 10.1pcts in ring; The completed area increased by 11.2% in the same period, 1.9% in the same period in December, and -13.5pcts in ring.
The decline in the growth rate of new construction in a single month has expanded, and the sales downturn may continue to suppress the growth rate of new construction. Land acquisition: in December, the transaction and construction area of residential land in 100 large and medium-sized cities was - 60% year-on-year and - 21pcts month on month. Sales: the sales area in December was - 15.6% year-on-year and - 1.7 PCTs month on month. Due to the continued weakness of land acquisition and sales data, it is judged that it has greatly inhibited the new construction in 22 years.
The monthly growth rate of completion fell, which was judged to be disturbed by the short-term capital of real estate enterprises, but the medium-term improvement trend has not changed In December, the real estate development funds were - 19.3% YoY and - 12.3pcts mom; Among them, the monthly growth rates of Chinese loans, self raised funds and personal mortgage loans increased by - 11.1pcts, - 11.9pcts and - 18.6pcts respectively. Due to the periodic disturbance of capital, considering the national policy ideas of "guaranteed delivery" and "stricter management of pre-sale funds", and combined with the reality that the completion cycle has not ended, it is judged that the growth rate of the completion end will continue to rise in the first half of 22 years.
Investment suggestion: we judge that the growth rate of infrastructure construction in the whole year of 22 may show a trend of high before and low after. It is expected that the growth rate of new construction will remain depressed in the medium and long term. We judge that the slowdown of completion growth is a phased disturbance, and the growth rate of completion end will continue to pick up in the first half of 22. Around the three directions we are optimistic about, we recommend: 1) the direction of central construction enterprises, such as China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) . 2) In the field of new energy for electric power, it is recommended Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) and China's energy construction. 3) In the field of assembly and equipment leasing, Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) is recommended. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Hongxin construction, Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) . Other recommendations: Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) , attention: China Building Material Test & Certification Group Co.Ltd(603060) .
Risk tip: the growth rate of government bond financing is lower than expected, resulting in the lower than expected growth rate of infrastructure, the tight capital chain of real estate developers, and the completion recovery is lower than expected. The centralized land supply affects the capital arrangement of real estate enterprises, resulting in the lower than expected growth rate of new construction and the lower than expected growth rate of real estate investment.
