Events: (1) in December, the business volume of national express service enterprises completed 10.25 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%; Business income reached 91.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%. In 2021, the business volume of national express service enterprises totaled 108.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 29.9%; Business income totaled 1033.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%.
(2) Tongda is the data released by express companies in December:
[ Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) ] in December, the company’s express service revenue was 4.316 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.74%; The business volume reached 1.836 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 22.16%; The single ticket income of express service was 2.35 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.17%.
[ Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ] in December, the company’s express product revenue was 3.954 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.95%; The business volume was 1.582 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 6.17%; The single ticket revenue of express products was 2.50 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.99%.
[ Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) ] in December, the company’s express service revenue was 2.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.28%; The business volume reached 1.153 billion tickets, a year-on-year increase of 19.58%; The single ticket revenue of express service was 2.44 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.72%.
From the perspective of business volume growth, the growth rate of the industry slowed down, Yunda was ahead of its peers, and the slowdown of Yuantong was caused by differences in competitive strategies and base effect: the number of pieces in the industry increased by 10.7% year-on-year in December, down 5.8pts month on month compared with November, which was in line with expectations under the background of high base and slow consumption growth in peak seasons last year. In December, the growth rates of business volume of listed express companies were: Yunda + 22.16% (mom + 3.13pts), Yuantong + 6.17% (mom -7.22pts), Shentong + 19.58% (mom + 2.90pts). 1) The growth rate of Yuantong lags behind its peers. We believe that there are two main reasons: ① the competitive strategy is differentiated. Yuantong resolutely implements the price increase policy and attaches importance to the profit quality (the profit of 2021q4 single ticket express delivery has been significantly improved to 0.14 yuan). At the same time, the company continues to optimize the customer structure, and the loss of low-value customers leads to the slowdown of the growth rate of parts. ② As a result of the high base effect, the growth rate of round pass volume in December 2020 was 45.7%, while the growth rates of Yunda and Shentong in the same period were 36.98% and 25.86% respectively. 2) Yunda’s growth rate is ahead of its peers. We believe that the main reason is that the company has adjusted its operation in the core grain producing areas and released the reform dividend; The base for the same period in 2020 is relatively low; In addition, the company makes more matching pricing for various market needs, and the operation is flexible.
In terms of price, the price of the industry has increased month on month. The unit price of Tongda Department has slightly decreased month on month, but it has continuously achieved positive growth year on year. Generally, the price is stable after the peak season: according to the data of the State Post Office, the average unit price of the express industry in December was 9.70 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 3.13% (a decrease of 0.31 yuan), and the year-on-year decrease narrowed by 0.71 PTS; + 2.26% month on month (up 0.21 yuan). In December, the unit prices of Tongda were as follows: Yunda was + 2.17% year-on-year and – 1.26% month on month (down 0.03 yuan); Yuantong was + 12.99% year-on-year and – 3.47% month on month (down 0.09 yuan); Shentong was + 4.72% year-on-year and -0.81% month on month (down 0.02 yuan). We believe that the price of Tongda department is basically stable and the profit elasticity is released: ① the month on month decline of unit price of Tongda department in December is within 0.1 yuan. Except for the cancellation of price increase of heavy goods selling in peak season and the slight loosening of prices in non production areas, the overall price performance is stable. ② The year-on-year increase of Yuantong’s unit price continued to lead its peers, with a month on month decrease or a decline due to the rapid increase in the early stage. We observed that since October 2021, the single ticket income of Yuantong, Yunda and Shentong has increased by 0.21/0.18/0.33 yuan respectively. ③ The unit prices of Yunda and Shentong increased year-on-year for two consecutive months. Looking forward to 2022, we will pay short-term attention to the price trend in the off-season after the Spring Festival. At the same time, we believe that under the policy supervision, the shift of leading business strategy and the demand for high-quality development of the industry, the annual price probability of the industry remains stable and has improved significantly year-on-year.
From the perspective of the main “grain producing areas”, the price fluctuated slightly, and the growth rate of parts in South China was excellent. (1) In December, the express business volume of Yiwu was + 3.0% year-on-year, the unit price was + 8.4% (+ 0.24 yuan) year-on-year, and the chain comparison was – 6.7% (- 0.22 yuan). The high price in Yiwu fell slightly, and the growth rate of parts slowed down. (2) The number of pieces in Guangzhou was + 34.9% year-on-year, the unit price was – 25.6% year-on-year and – 5.1% month on month (-0.36 yuan); The quantity of Jieyang parts was + 24.8% year-on-year, the unit price was – 21.9% year-on-year, and the chain ratio was + 0.6% (+ 0.02 yuan). Prices in the main grain producing areas fluctuated slightly month on month, showing a stable trend on the whole.
In terms of market share, the shares of all Tongda companies increased month on month: in December, the market shares of Tongda company’s business volume were: Yunda 17.91% (month on month + 1.30pts), Yuantong 15.43% (month on month + 0.04pts), Shentong 11.25% (month on month + 0.82pts). The market share of Tongda company increased month on month. We believe that the current competitive strategy of head express enterprises is changing from single share priority to comprehensive competition among share, products and profitability.
Investment suggestion: A shares we recommend: S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) : the recovery of the growth rate of aging parts plus cost control is expected to drive the continuous improvement of the company’s performance. China’s logistics market ranks first in the world, and SF is the leader of comprehensive logistics, with enough room for growth. Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : the service and refined management are continuously improved, and the cost is continuously optimized. With the upward movement of the price center, the performance of e-commerce express is more flexible. Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : the company’s share has always kept up with the leading Zhongtong, and the unit price has stabilized, which is expected to usher in a double rise in performance and valuation. U.S. stocks are optimistic about Zhongtong express: e-commerce express is the leader, its share remains the first in the industry, its management level lags behind its peers, which is reflected in its business advantages, and its profitability continues to lead its peers.
Risk tip: the industry demand is less than expected; Price competition in the industry has intensified.
