Policies guide infrastructure investment, special bonds continue to make efforts, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to rebound. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to November of 21 years, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 49.4 trillion, yoy + 5.2% (previous value + 6.1%), and yoy + 0.2% in November alone; Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) yoy + 0.5% (previous value + 1.0%). According to the data of China government network and wind, the issuance amount of new special bonds in November and December were 576.1 billion and 96.8 billion respectively, and the amount in November was the highest in the year. At the same time, on January 10, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that the 1.2 trillion yuan of local government special bond funds issued in the fourth quarter of 21 should be allocated to specific projects as soon as possible, pay close attention to the issuance of special bonds issued in 22 years, make good use of the investment in the central budget, focus on the projects under construction and those that can start as soon as possible, leverage more social investment, and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. It is estimated that nearly trillion of special bonds will be issued in 22q1, and the superposition effect will further promote the implementation progress of new infrastructure projects in 22 years. We expect the growth rate of infrastructure investment to rebound rapidly, which is expected to achieve a "good start" in 22 years.
The month on month growth rate of real estate sales expanded, and the completion maintained growth. Under the policy expectation, the real estate confidence is expected to be repaired. In the whole year of 21, the national investment in real estate development was 14.76 trillion, yoy + 4.4%, yoy-13.9% (the previous value was - 4.3%) in December alone; The land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises is 220 million square meters, yoy-15.5%, yoy-33.4% in December alone; The land transaction price is 1.78 trillion, yoy + 2.8%, yoy-4.2% in December alone; The cumulative sales area of commercial housing is 1.79 billion square meters, yoy + 1.9%, yoy-15.6% in December alone; The new construction area of houses is 1.99 billion square meters, yoy-11.4%, yoy-31.2% in December alone; Housing construction area is 9.75 billion square meters, yoy + 5.2%, yoy-35.3% in December alone; The completed housing area is 1.01 billion square meters, yoy + 11.2%, yoy + 1.9% in December alone. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing in China continued to decline in December alone, but it increased by 41% month on month (MOM) compared with November, and the growth rate was 22pct higher than that in November. We judge that the main reason is that the credit policy has been relaxed and the real estate enterprises have increased their sales collection efforts at the end of the year. Affected by the sharp decline of capital sources of real estate enterprises, the data of commencement and completion in December are weak, and the real estate is under short-term pressure. Since December, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and regulators have repeatedly stated that they will support the normal financing of real estate enterprises and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. With the further relaxation of the margin of real estate financing policy and the implementation of the relaxation policy of personal mortgage loans in the future, the confidence of the real estate industry is expected to be repaired.
Cement demand continued to fall, and the price center remained high. From January to December of 21 years, the cumulative cement output in China was 2.36 billion tons, yoy-1.2%, and the cement output in December alone was 190 million tons, yoy-11.1%; At the end of December, the national p.o42 5. The average price of cement was 583 yuan / ton, down from - 51 yuan at the end of last month, up from + 113 yuan / ton last year. Considering that it is currently in the rush period at the end of the year and peak production has been staggered in many places, it is expected that the cement price will decline seasonally, but the overall price center will remain high. Looking forward to the next 22 years, the advance development of infrastructure investment and the expected improvement of real estate are expected to support demand, and the overall demand toughness will remain; In addition, the coal price is expected to fall, and the enterprise profit toughness is expected to be maintained. We are still optimistic about the further repair of the sector.
Glass prices rebounded at the bottom, and the demand toughness is expected to be maintained. From January to December of the 21st year, the national flat glass output was 1.02 billion heavy boxes, yoy + 8.4%, and the glass output in December alone was 85.96 million heavy boxes, yoy + 3.2%. At the end of January, the national average price of white glass for construction was 2108 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 14 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 70 yuan. We believe that with the marginal improvement of real estate funds and the continuous release of "guaranteed delivery" demand, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering the high capacity utilization rate of the industry, the subsequent new capacity is limited; In addition, at present, in the production line, the production capacity with kiln age of 8-10 years / more accounts for 14.1% / 14.5% respectively. The cold repair of the old production line may lead to supply contraction. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price. We judge that the price of glass is expected to continue to pick up.
Investment suggestion: the bad credit of the real estate chain has been exhausted, and the price rise has gradually fallen / the price of raw materials has fallen. Under the expected marginal improvement of the real estate, the brand building materials have gradually entered the layout time point, with high leading certainty. The key recommendations are Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) , It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) and China Liansu. For the cement industry, the marginal relaxation at the real estate financing end may lead to the improvement of market expectations. With the addition of the recent acceleration of special bond issuance, the cement demand is expected to be supported; In addition, the role of policy regulation of coal price has been fully demonstrated. When the cement price center is expected to remain high, the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to ease month on month. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the cement sector, focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , and it is suggested to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and China building materials. In addition, we also recommend the concrete water reducing agent tap Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , which benefits from infrastructure development. For the glass industry, under the "guaranteed delivery" of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. On the supply side, considering that the current industrial capacity utilization is at a high level, the subsequent new capacity is limited, and the cold repair of the elderly production line may lead to supply contraction; At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to continue to pick up. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.); Focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) and pay attention to Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) .
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; The price of raw materials has risen sharply; Policy fluctuation risk; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises.
