Brand clothing: 1) sportswear sector: it is expected that the growth rate of 4q21 will slow down significantly month on month, but the leading toughness is relatively strong, and the discount rate and warehouse sales ratio still maintain a healthy level. Among them, the 4q21 running water of Li Ning brand is expected to achieve an increase of about 30%, and the running water in the whole year of 21 is expected to achieve an increase of more than 45%; Anta's main brand 4q21 is expected to achieve low to medium double-digit growth; Tebu International's main brand 4q21 increased by 20% - 25%, and the annual flow increased by 30% in 2021 +; In addition, the company issued a performance pre increase announcement. It is expected that the net profit in 2021 will increase by no less than 70% year-on-year, slightly exceeding the previous expectation and performing well. 2) Clothing of other brands: it is expected that high-end clothing will be less affected by the economic downturn than mass leisure clothing. Among them, Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion Co.Ltd(603808) it is estimated that the revenue (year-on-year 20% ~ 25%) and profit (year-on-year decline 20% ~ 25%) in 21 years will basically return to the level of 19 years; Xin Hee Co.Ltd(003016) the revenue in the fourth quarter is expected to be stable with the increase and decrease of the number of units, and the profit side is expected to decline slightly due to the centralized provision of expenses at the end of the year.
Textile manufacturing end: there is obvious differentiation among leaders in various sectors. The upstream color spinning leader Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) industrial Internet transformation and the downstream ADA Internet socks industry are expanded smoothly (the revenue is expected to increase by 38% ~ 42% and the net profit will reach about 520-560 million yuan in 21 years), and the production capacity of nylon filament leader Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) is expanded orderly (the revenue and net profit are expected to increase by 67% ~ 72% and 305% ~ 315% respectively in 21 years); As well as the resumption of production in the middle reaches of Shenzhou International Ningbo and the recovery of overseas production capacity (it is expected that the number of units will increase and the number of units will decline respectively in revenue and net profit in 21 years), Zhejiang Jasan Holding Group Co.Ltd(603558) seamless business rebounded (it is expected that the revenue will increase by 25% ~ 30% and the net profit will reach about 230-250 million yuan in 21 years).
Investment suggestion: in the short term, we are optimistic about the capacity restoration elasticity of each subdivision leader at the textile manufacturing end, and the improvement of efficiency drives the optimization of profits. In the long term, we suggest to grasp the movement, the promotion of brand value of high-end clothing head, and the switch from following the trend to leading the brand. At the textile manufacturing end, it is suggested to pay attention to Huafu Fashion Co.Ltd(002042) , Zhe Jiang Taihua New Material Co.Ltd(603055) and Shenzhou International, which are more flexible in automatic production, quality improvement and efficiency improvement; It is suggested to pay strong attention to the slowdown of brand clothing growth α、 The growth targets with high certainty include Li Ning (leading brand strength and broadening customer base), Tebu International (accelerating store expansion and exceeding expectations in business performance), etc.
Data tracking and news trends
Social zero: from October to December, the overall growth rate of social zero was 4.9% / 3.9% / 1.7%, of which clothing retail decreased by 3.30% / 0.50% / 2.30% respectively year-on-year, weaker than the overall performance of social zero, and 4q21 consumption was weak; In December, affected by the local outbreak of the epidemic and the warm weather in winter, the decline expanded again.
Export: in December 2021, China's textile export increased by 16.21% year-on-year, 6.2pct higher than that in November, and orders have rebounded since October; In December, the export of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 14.50% year-on-year, slowing down by 8.32 PCT month on month compared with November, mainly due to the weakening of low base effect.
Raw material price: 328 grade cotton spot 22460 yuan / ton (0.02%, weekly rise and fall); American cotton Cotlook a130 45 cents / pound (1.40%); The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is 1580 yuan / ton (- 20.70%).
Industry news: 1) Anta's amersports sells SUUNTO Songtuo, a Finnish sports watch brand, and the buyer is a Chinese wearable technology enterprise. 2) Shenzhou International Ningbo Beilun factory was fully unsealed. 3) Affected by the Omicron strain, lululemon lowered its forecast for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2021.
Risk tips
Repeated epidemic risk, exchange rate fluctuation risk, rising labor costs in Vietnam and lower than expected price increase.
