Key investment points:
In December 2021, Shenwan computer index rose by 1.63%, ranking 18th in the industry; In the first half of January 2022, the computer index fell by 2.96%, ranking 17th in the industry. In December 2021, the Shanghai stock index rose by 2.13%, the CSI 300 index rose by 2.24%, the computer index rose by 1.63%, ranking 18th in the industry; In the first half of January 2022, the Shanghai stock index fell by 3.26%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 4.32%, and the computer index fell by 2.96%, ranking 17th in the industry.
The overall valuation method is in the historical 18% quantile, and the median valuation is in the historical 31% quantile. By January 15, 2022, the computer sector (Shenwan) pe (TTM, excluding negative value) was 43.11 times, at the historical 9.42% quantile since 2016; PE (TTM, median) is 50.82 times, at the historical 29.55% quantile since 2016. The valuation (median) of the computer sector relative to the CSI 300 index was 6.63 times, an increase over the previous month.
From January to November 2021, China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) industry revenue maintained good development and total wages increased rapidly. From January to November China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) and the information technology service industry showed a good development trend. The software business income increased steadily and rapidly, the total profit maintained growth, the export increased continuously and slightly, the number of employees decreased for the first time in the year, and the total wage increased rapidly. The growth rate of software product revenue declined slightly, and the prosperity of cloud computing, big data services, e-commerce, integrated circuit design and other fields was good.
Investment perspective. The evolution of the market situation has re formed the premium of the sector median valuation relative to the overall valuation method, and the industry is expected to gradually return to the multi-point flowering pattern. The continuous guidance gives a strong driving force for the development of industry construction. In December 2021, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other ministries and commissions launched plans in the fields of intelligent manufacturing and informatization, deepened the planning of the core links of digital economy during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and published the article “vigorously promoting the healthy development of China’s digital economy” on qiushi.com in mid January, The long-term goal of developing digital economy is emphasized again. Using it technology to reduce costs and increase efficiency has been established as an important means to improve social operation, which is the fundamental responsibility of the digital economy base. The industry data also reflected that the total wages of the software industry accelerated from January to November 2021. If the financial expenditure pressure caused by the epidemic and international relations is relieved in 2022, the government demand will be gradually released to promote the landing of new orders and the recognition of revenue from old orders in the computer industry. Therefore, we suggest that we not only pay attention to the companies with technical advantages, platform advantages and strong enabling attributes, but also pay attention to the subdivided fields that have benefited from the recovery of financial expenditure, such as Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) , Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) . Maintain the rating of “synchronous market” in the industry.
Risk tip: the development of the industry is less than expected, the policy is less than expected, and international disputes aggravate the risk.
