Event overview:
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in December 2021, China sold 33400 250cc + medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 107.1% and a month on month increase of + 28.3%. From January to December, 333000 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of + 65.8%.
Analysis and judgment:
In mid December, the sales volume of large platoon was comparable to that in the peak season, and the whole year ended with 333000 vehicles
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in December 2021, China sold 33400 250cc + medium and large displacement motorcycles, with a year-on-year increase of + 107.1% and a month on month increase of + 28.3%, which exceeded previous expectations. The monthly sales volume was only lower than that in June and even higher than that in the traditional peak season from July to September. In terms of export, it contributed to the main increment. In December, 250cc + export reached 16000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 97.7%, of which Chunfeng (5700 vehicles), Qianjiang (45000 vehicles) and Longxin (2900 vehicles) ranked among the top three.
In terms of subdivided displacement: 1) the 250cc (excluding) - 400cc displacement section sold 21700 vehicles in December, with a year-on-year increase of + 118.8%; from January to December, it sold 230500 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 77.0%; 2) The 400cc (excluding) - 750cc displacement section sold 10700 vehicles in December, a year-on-year increase of + 74.1%, and 98100 vehicles were sold from January to December, a year-on-year increase of + 39.3%; 3) Over 750cc, 100000 vehicles were sold in December, and 4400 vehicles were sold from January to December. Among them, the displacement range of 250cc (excluding) - 400cc accounts for about 65%, which confirms that the growth of the industry mainly comes from emerging entry-level consumer groups.
Looking forward to 2022, with the further formation of China's motorcycle culture, the release of the upgrading and replacement demand of emerging consumer groups and the marginal improvement of the motorcycle ban and restriction policy, it is expected that the industry can continue to achieve high-speed growth of about 40%, reach the sales volume of 400000 + vehicles throughout the year, and continue to recommend medium and large displacement motorcycle tracks.
Spring breeze: two rounds of overseas growth points and four rounds of exports hit a record high
Two wheeled motorcycles: according to the data of China Automobile Association, in December, the sales volume of more than 250cc was 7400, with a year-on-year increase of + 296.2% and a month-on-month increase of + 122.7%. As the company's 250cc is the main sales force, if it is widened to 250cc (inclusive), the sales volume in December will be 11100, with a year-on-year increase of + 160.4% and a month-on-month increase of + 100.8%, exceeding the previous expectation. In terms of export, the company's 250cc + export reached a record 5700 vehicles in December, with a cumulative export of 17800 vehicles throughout the year, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 264.9%. Since 2021, after the four rounds of overseas market position has been gradually stabilized, the focus of the company's overseas market has gradually tilted to two rounds. In the future, it is expected to form two rounds of new growth levels overseas with the help of overseas channels and brand advantages, and move towards a complete business matrix of [two rounds, four rounds] + [domestic sales and export].
Four wheeled ATVs: according to the data of China Automobile Association, 19700 vehicles were exported in December, with a year-on-year increase of + 94.0% and a month on month increase of + 15.2%. The export in a single month reached a record high. From January to December, a total of 164900 vehicles were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 126.6%. Considering the low inventory of overseas terminals and the company's North American channel development, it is expected that the high boom will continue with a high probability in 2022. The recent market focus is mainly on the possibility of tariff exemption for ATV models exported to North America. At present, the probability is high. If the tariff exemption is successful and considering the elasticity of freight reduction, it is expected to increase profits by 250 / 350 + million yuan from 2022 to 2023 respectively.
Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) : a new round of product cycle is opened, and Qianmo Shanghai is officially opened
According to the data of China Automobile Association, in December, the sales volume of more than 250cc was 6800 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.3% and a month on month increase of + 6.5%. From January to December, a total of 82100 vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.0%. Since the second half of 2021, the company has continuously expanded its product pedigree and ushered in a new round of product cycle: 1) there are few competitive products in the same level of four cylinder imitation race 600, and its performance continues to be excellent; 2) Sai350 and sai250 have superior neutral performance and outstanding appearance in similar medium displacement models. They were delivered in late July and mid September respectively, contributing to the core increment of Q4; 3) Chongqing motor show released new car flash 300s and Yi 550.
Key changes in recent years: 1) according to WeChat official account, Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) Shanghai officially opened in late November, and set up three major centers for new energy research and development, industrial design and international trade, to enhance the vehicle's appearance and foresight technology research and development capabilities. 2) On December 8, the company and Harley joint venture officially completed the registration and accelerated the mass production and landing of target motorcycles (338cc displacement, 500cc displacement and motorcycles agreed in writing by both parties).
Others: Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) followed by five & new books, and the share remained stable
Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) : according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of more than 250cc in December was 35000, with a year-on-year increase of + 47.6% and a month on month increase of - 31.7%; From January to December, there were a total of 60500 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 94.5%. Together with Chunfeng and Qianjiang, we built the first echelon of independent motorcycle enterprises.
Five books & new books: according to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of five books above 250cc in December was 4500, a month on month increase of + 81.1%, and a total of 24000 vehicles from January to December; In December, the sales volume of more than 250cc was 18000, with a month on month ratio of - 28.5%, and a total of 20800 vehicles from January to December. From September to December, Honda's share has been relatively stable, maintaining around 20%. For the domestic impact of Honda, we still continue our previous judgment, that is, the short-term impact on the independent brand is relatively limited, mainly due to the differences in price and positioning between the two, but in the medium and long term, whether the independent brand can improve the brand and quality control will become the key to competition.
Investment advice
The current development stage of medium and large displacement motorcycles is similar to the SUV sector from 2013 to 2014. The launch of new models and new brands by the supply end vehicle enterprises accelerates, provides the core driving force for the development of the industry, and the market expands rapidly. Referring to China's automobile development history and the competition pattern of overseas motorcycle market, independent brands are expected to become the biggest beneficiaries of the rise of demand for medium and large displacement motorcycles. It is recommended that [ Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co.Ltd(000913) , Chongqing Zongshen Power Machinery Co.Ltd(001696) ] and relevant beneficiary targets [ Loncin Motor Co.Ltd(603766) ].
Risk tips
The tightening of motorcycle ban and restriction policies has led to the decline of motorcycle demand in China; The introduction of a large number of new models of foreign brands has led to intensified market competition; The second outbreak of covid-19 epidemic led to the decline of motorcycle export sales.
