The centralized commencement ceremony of major projects was held in many places across the country. From January 4 to 6, the announced total investment of major projects in 2022 has exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and cement and pipe materials will fully benefit.
The sector fell this week, underperforming the market: this week, Shenwan building materials index closed at 7781.2 points, down 6.9%, underperforming Wande a. The industry's average p / E ratio was 14.15 times, down 1.01 from last week. In the last year, the building materials sector fell by 4.38%, lower than the increase of 1.99% of Wande a.
The early judgment was gradually verified and the cement industry continued to be recommended: we continued to recommend the cement industry, the central economic work conference stated that "steady growth" and "moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure construction", the special debt was approved and issued in advance, the centralized commencement of infrastructure projects in many places this week, the acceleration of affordable housing construction and many other events confirmed our previous judgment. At present, the cement price has fallen a lot compared with the historical high in the fourth quarter of last year, but it is still higher than that in the same period of history. We believe that the accelerated decline in cement prices years ago is to better raise prices in the peak demand season. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. Clinker and P · O42 this week 5、P·S32. 5. The price of powder was 387.9 yuan, 477.4 yuan and 455.3 yuan / ton respectively, with a decrease of 16.0 yuan, 7.1 yuan and 5.0 yuan respectively. The demand is still in the doldrums, and the price is still declining slowly. The mill operating rate and clinker storage ratio were 583% and 57.0% respectively, increasing by 5.0% and 0.6% respectively. The operating rate of the mill rose again, mainly due to the increased demand for rush work years ago.
Continue to recommend pipe industry opportunities: 1 The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. Many places take urban pipe gallery, Anlan project and water conservancy construction as the key direction of infrastructure construction; 2. The main raw materials PVC, PE and PPR have reached the inflection point and entered the downstream channel; 3. Several rounds of price increases in the early stage have been basically implemented, and the profitability is expected to be improved; 4. There was a lot of decline in the early stage and the current valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the bottom-up logic of the industry and focus on the b-end leader Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
Raw material prices: soda ash and ethylene oxide prices fell this week, while crude oil prices rose rapidly: the prices of soda ash and ethylene oxide in the main raw materials of the building materials industry fell by 300 yuan and 200 yuan / ton respectively this week. Coal prices rebounded by 179.7 yuan, and crude oil prices rose by $3.9 a barrel, which may put pressure on crude oil prices.
Key recommendation
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is recommended to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . At present, the valuation of the cement sector is in a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader, etc. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention.
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance.
