Event:
On January 19, Guangdong Pharmaceutical Trading Center issued the notice on the centralized procurement document of diclofenac and other drugs of Guangdong alliance, and a variety of recombinant human growth hormone were included in the centralized procurement catalogue.
Comments:
The highest effective declared price of growth hormone water needle was low, exceeding market expectations. According to the document on centralized procurement of diclofenac and other drugs of Guangdong alliance, in the procurement of growth hormone alliance, the average value of the highest valid application price of 9 water needle specifications is 12.69 yuan / IU, which is more than 60% different from the price of water needle hanging net of Kinsey pharmaceutical in recent years. In terms of growth hormone powder injection, the average value of the highest valid application price of 11 specifications is 14.77 yuan / IU, which is less different from the current market price. On the whole, there is little difference between the highest effective application price for growth hormone powder injection and water injection of the same specification. The Guangdong growth hormone alliance did not bid for powder injection and water injection in the procurement, and the price limit rules were relatively strict, resulting in a large expected price reduction of water injection, which exceeded the market expectation.
The expected impact of the purchase of growth hormone Alliance on enterprises still needs to wait for the final result. According to the detailed list of reported volume of public medical institutions in 276 drug alliance areas, the total pre procurement volume of public medical institutions in the alliance area in the first year of the procurement period is 8247689iu, with powder injection accounting for about 60% and water injection accounting for about 40%. (1) In terms of powder injection, there are five growth hormone powder injection suppliers involved in this application form, namely Kinsey pharmaceutical, Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) , Shanghai United Saier, Zhongshan Weiming Haiji and South Korea LG company. Among them, the pre procurement volume of Anhui Anke Biotechnology (Group)Co.Ltd(300009) powder injection in the first year of the procurement period accounts for more than half. The ceiling price of growth hormone powder injection is relatively optimistic, and powder injection related enterprises are likely to actively bid. The specific impact still depends on the final winning price. (2) In terms of water injection, the detailed list of reported volume of public medical institutions in the alliance area involves three water injection suppliers, of which the pre procurement volume of kinsay pharmaceutical, a subsidiary of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , accounts for 98.24% in the first year of the water injection procurement period. Taking kinsay pharmaceutical as an example, the two specifications with large demand are 15iu and 30iu, and the declared maximum price is 173.58 yuan and 295.08 yuan. The current online prices of the two products are about 567 yuan and 1031 yuan; Combined with the pre procurement volume of public medical institutions in the alliance area in the first year of the procurement period, the corresponding sales amount is RMB 114 million. After winning the alliance procurement at the maximum price, the corresponding revenue end will be reduced by about 71%. The sales of more than 100 million yuan account for a relatively small proportion of the revenue of Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) 8.577 billion yuan (2020). The choice made by the enterprise still needs to be further observed.
The competition pattern of growth hormone may be disturbed by intensive collection in the future. At present, the market pattern of growth hormone is more caused by market competition, and the role of medical insurance is less. Whether the current pattern will be broken mainly depends on the performance of growth hormone water needle suppliers in the alliance procurement. If some enterprises adopt more radical strategies and some enterprises take conservative measures, radical enterprises may open competition channels through the hospital market and seize the hospital market share of unsuccessful enterprises. The impact of the purchase of growth hormone alliance still needs to observe the final decision of enterprises and the results of joint mining.
Risk warning: epidemic prevention and control is not as expected; Risk of intensified market competition; The price decline of joint purchase / centralized purchase is higher than expected; The increase of market share after combined mining / centralized mining is less than the expected risk, etc.
