Event:
The national energy administration and the National Bureau of statistics released the data of power consumption and energy production in December 2021 and the whole year.
1) December 2021: the power consumption of the whole society is 815.6 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.18%; The power generation was 723.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%; Raw coal production was 380 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%; Natural gas production was 19.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%.
2) the whole year of 2021: the power consumption of the whole society is 8312.8 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%; The power generation was 8.11 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%; The production of raw coal was 4.071 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%; Natural gas production was 205.3 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%.
Key investment points:
Power: the water from hydropower is dry, and the high base leads to the decline of power consumption of secondary production
Power consumption end: in December 2021, the power consumption of the whole society decreased by 2.18% year-on-year, with an average increase of 7.11% in two years; In 2021, the cumulative power consumption increased by 10.3% year-on-year, with an average increase of 7.1% in two years. Low base effect + GDP maintained rapid growth, supporting the overall electricity demand throughout the year to maintain prosperity. By industry, the primary, secondary and tertiary industries increased by + 28.4%, – 4.93% and + 5.44% respectively year-on-year, and the domestic power consumption of urban and rural residents increased by 4.1% year-on-year. Among them, the decline in the growth rate of power consumption of the secondary industry in December 2021 was mainly affected by the high base in the same period of 2020. Taking December 2019 as the base, the average growth rate of power consumption in two years was 5.94%.
Power generation end: in December 2021, the power generation decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with an average increase of 5.14% in two years; In 2021, the cumulative power generation increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with an average growth of 6.57% in two years. Among them, the water from hydropower is relatively dry, the power generation decreased by 6.8% year-on-year in December 2021, and decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in 2021. The growth rate of thermal power generation decreased by 4.9% year-on-year, 2.4pct lower than that in November. In terms of other major new energy power types, in December 2021, nuclear power, wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation increased by 5.7%, 30.1% and 18.8% respectively year-on-year; Under the trend of continuous growth of installed capacity and continuous improvement of consumption, the year-on-year growth in 2021 was 11.3%, 29.8% and 14.1% respectively, and the average growth in the two years was 8.15%, 25.87% and 25.2% respectively.
Coal: self production accelerated
At the self production end, with the continuous promotion of the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply, in December 2021, the raw coal output increased by 7.2% year-on-year and 2.6pct month on month, with an average increase of 5.2% in two years; In 2021, the cumulative output increased by 4.7% year-on-year, with an average increase of 5.6% in two years. On the import side, under the background of the increase of self-produced coal, the import growth rate changed from increase to decrease, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.8% in December 2021, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% in 2021 and an average increase of 4.26% in two years.
Gas: the growth rate of self-produced gas is steady, and the growth rate of import is down
At the self production end, in December 2021, the natural gas production increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the growth rate slowed by 2.1pct compared with the previous month, and the average growth rate in the two years was 7.9%. Under the tone of “increasing reserves and increasing production”, the growth rate of self production end is stable. In 2021, the annual natural gas production increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with an average increase of 9.0% in two years. At the import end, in December 2021, the import volume of natural gas increased by 3.8% year-on-year and decreased by 14.0pct month on month, mainly because the LNG import price was at a high level; In 2021, the annual import of natural gas increased by 19.9% year-on-year, with an average increase of 8.74% in two years.
Investment suggestion: Although the green power sector has made a big correction since the beginning of the year, it is mainly due to the impact of short-term sentiment. It is expected that the profit of thermal power will improve, the green power under the main line of carbon neutralization will improve for a long time, and maintain the “recommended” rating of the industry. In terms of individual stocks, it is suggested to pay attention to Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) , China Resources Power, Shanghai Electric Power Co.Ltd(600021) , Fujian Funeng Co.Ltd(600483) , Huadian Power International Corporation Limited(600027) , Guangzhou Development Group Incorporated(600098) , Guangdong Electric Power Development Co.Ltd(000539) , Shenergy Company Limited(600642) of thermal power transformation into new energy; Longyuan Power, Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Nyocor Co.Ltd(600821) , Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , Jilin Electric Power Co.Ltd(000875) , Zhongmin Energy Co.Ltd(600163) , the subject of new energy power generation; Distributed photovoltaic targets Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Ganghua gas, Skyworth Group, Zhejiang Sunoren Solar Technology Co.Ltd(603105) , Hangzhou Star Shuaier Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002860) .
Risk tips: the risk of electricity price reduction, coal price fluctuation, macroeconomic downturn, less than expected new energy installation, and policy change risk. Some data in the report are calculated and may be different from the actual data and statistical caliber.
