The film market will advance in twists and turns in 2021 and start smoothly on New Year’s day in 2022. In 2021, the film market ended successfully with a box office of 47 billion yuan (including service fees) and 1.167 billion film viewers, accounting for 73% of the box office and 68% of the number of people in 2019. The film market started smoothly in 2022, with a box office of 1.02 billion on New Year’s day, a year-on-year decrease of 21.72% and 24.62 million film viewers, a year-on-year decrease of 28.01%, which is equivalent to the level in 2019, ranking third in the box office of new year’s day in Chinese film history and setting a new record.
As one of the most important schedules in the film market, the schedule effect and spillover effect of the Spring Festival are significant. In addition to the lack caused by the epidemic in 2020, the box office scale of the Spring Festival has continued to grow in recent ten years, from 336 million in 2011 to 7.825 billion in 2021, and the contribution rate to the annual box office has increased from 2.87% in 2011 to 16.64% in 2021. The strong demand for film viewing during the festival drives the impact. During the Spring Festival, the online seating rate of urban hospitals is usually higher than that on weekdays, and the average daily ticket property output during the schedule is significantly higher than that of the whole year. The head films released during the Spring Festival can often further drive the subsequent box office performance of the films through the fermentation of word-of-mouth during the schedule.
The spring festival film matrix is luxurious and has high market attention. In 2022, 9 films have been set for the Spring Festival. According to the number of people who want to see them before they are released, the market pays high attention to the films released during the Spring Festival this year. Among them, the number of people who want to see “cat’s eye + Amoy tickets” of “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” recently set for viewing quickly exceeded 1 million. In recent years, due to the enrichment of domestic film types, the types and themes of films released during the Spring Festival are becoming more and more diversified. Animation, science fiction, fantasy and commercial theme can meet the viewing needs of different audiences. It is expected that this year’s Spring Festival is expected to further drive the film viewing boom under the differentiated supply of high-quality and multi type films.
Looking back to 2021, the local Chinese new year policy may have a positive impact. Due to the continuous impact of the epidemic and the occurrence of Omicron virus infection cases in some areas, many governments have issued documents to advocate citizens to celebrate the Spring Festival on the spot and not go out of the province if necessary. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission has issued the following policies: Online festival consumption, county rural consumption, cultural, tourism and leisure service supply, and expanding residents’ ice and snow consumption; At the same time, Zhejiang, Shaanxi, Hunan and other places, while advocating the local new year, issue consumption vouchers to personnel and residents who meet the application conditions. From the situation in 2021, the local new year policy has a positive impact on the film market. The reduction of personnel mobility and the superposition of consumption promotion policies have jointly promoted the increase of residents’ demands for local entertainment consumption.
Investment suggestion: in 2021, the epidemic affected repeatedly, and the long-term logic of watching movies driven by high-quality content was verified again. The head cinema is expected to improve its concentration by developing both survival of the fittest, integration and sinking expansion. The rich content reserve in 2022 is the basis for driving the release of viewing demand in the post epidemic era. Pay attention to the follow-up epidemic prevention and control. Under the effective epidemic prevention system, the disturbance of the epidemic to the film market is expected to be reduced, and the industry also has the opportunity to rebound. In the short term, policy guidance and the impact of the epidemic will promote the rise of cultural and entertainment consumption in Japan during the holidays. As the most important way of offline culture and entertainment, spring festival film viewing is expected to continue to benefit from the local new year policy and boost the box office performance of films. In particular, this year’s Spring Festival films are rich in types and receive high market attention. Cinema companies and relevant participants of film projects are expected to usher in marginal improvement opportunities, It is suggested to pay attention to Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) (the market share of cinemas has increased, and the Spring Festival file “miracle · stupid child”), Hengdian Entertainment Co.Ltd(603103) (the third and fourth tier market advantages, and the Spring Festival file “Four Seas”), Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) (the Spring Festival file “sniper”, and the Valentine’s Day file “one product in ten years” China Film Co.Ltd(600977) (Spring Festival file “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake”, “miracle · stupid child”) and Guomai Culture & Media Co.Ltd(301052) (Spring Festival file “Four Seas”), etc.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation is repeated and the impact time and region are uncertain; The box office of the film is less than expected; The film was not released as scheduled.
