Tracking of driving factors: the annual sales were “high before low”, and the completed area reached a new high in the same period in five years
In 2021, the sales area of commercial housing increased slightly by 1.07%, reaching 1.565 billion square meters. On the whole, affected by the change of credit policy, tightening of house purchase qualification and other policies, the annual sales showed an obvious situation of “high before low”. The sales were hot in the first half of the year, and the market quickly entered the freezing point in the second half of the year. In December, the monthly sales area was 174 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.45%, and a decrease of 10.15% compared with the same period in 2019. With the continuous tightening of pre-sale capital supervision, we expect the liquidity crisis of real estate enterprises to continue. Considering that Q1 in 2022 is the small peak of debt repayment of real estate enterprises, the current debt repayment pressure of real estate enterprises is huge, and the liquidity crisis of real estate enterprises will have a more obvious impact on suppliers closely bound to the business of real estate enterprises. Looking ahead, considering the continuous release of demand and strict regulation since 2020, the market demand is relatively weak at this stage. We expect that the national commercial housing sales will decline to 16.7 trillion in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. Considering that there is a time lag of about one year between the performance of the overall household enterprises and real estate sales, the growth of the performance of household enterprises in 2022 and 2023 is expected to face great pressure.
In terms of completion, the completed residential area in China was 730.16 million square meters in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 10.78%. The overall completed area reached a new high since 2017, and the overall completed area was at a high level. 2021 was the year of completion. With the real estate entering the downward cycle, we expect the completed area to maintain a steady growth trend in 2022. In terms of export, the export of furniture and its parts reached US $7.149 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%, an increase of 22.40% over the same period in 2019, and the growth rate of export data continued to decline. Considering the hot market of the U.S. real estate market, we believe that furniture exports are expected to decline in 2022, but the overall scale is expected to remain high.
Industry prosperity tracking: Furniture society is under zero short-term pressure and Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) performance is expected to increase
In terms of social retail, the retail sales of furniture in a single month in December was 17.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, and the retail growth rate in a single month turned negative for the first time in 13 months. In terms of profit, the total profit of a single month in November still showed a downward trend year-on-year, with a year-on-year decline of 10.64%, a decrease of 9.68% compared with 2019. The short-term profit of furniture enterprises is under pressure. In terms of home appliances, after the great promotion in November, the retail sales of home appliances reached 93.3 billion yuan in December, down 6.00% year-on-year, and the sales growth in a single month continued to slow down. Throughout the year, under the influence of the low base in 2020, white power maintained a relatively rapid growth rate in 2021. In 2021, the online sales of refrigerators, washing machines and air conditioners increased by 22.6%, 20.4% and 9.7% respectively year-on-year. Relatively speaking, the stand-alone clothes dryer will emerge in the white electricity market in 2021. With the vigorous promotion of Haier, Little Swan, Panasonic and other enterprises, consumers’ awareness and purchase desire for clothes dryers have improved. In 2021, the online sales of independent clothes dryers increased by 64.3% year-on-year, and the sales scale increased significantly.
In terms of enterprises, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be RMB 1.65 billion to 1.73 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 95% to 105%. Under the background of continuous expansion of channels and continuous upgrading of organizational structure, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) performance increased. Looking forward to the future, at a time when the real estate prospect is relatively pessimistic, we believe that we should pay more attention to enterprises with stronger product consumption attributes, such as leading enterprises in software home furnishing and sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) industries, so as to reduce the impact of real estate on industrial chain enterprises as much as possible.
