In December, the data of construction industry was released, the infrastructure data recovered, and the year-on-year decline of real estate investment expanded; The commencement data continued to decline, and the completion data increased significantly month on month; The land transaction area decreased year-on-year, and the chain ratio increased, and the supply area decreased year-on-year; In December, the newly signed orders of the three central construction enterprises increased year-on-year.
Investment data: investment growth in December was resilient, infrastructure recovered, and the decline in real estate expanded: fixed asset investment in December was 7.0 trillion, an increase of 2.0% at the same time. Among them, the completed investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate development was 2.6 trillion, 1.9 trillion and 1.0 trillion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.8%, 3.8% and – 13.9% respectively. In 2021, the total investment in fixed assets was 76.1 trillion, an increase of 4.9% at the same time; The total investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate development was 24.3 trillion, 18.9 trillion and 14.8 trillion respectively, an increase of 13.5%, 0.2% and 4.4% at the same time. Compared with previous years, the growth rate of manufacturing investment increased, and the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment decreased significantly.
Infrastructure investment: infrastructure investment picked up in December, and the sub items performed well: infrastructure investment in December was 1.8 trillion, an increase of 3.8% and 7.9% month on month. Among them, the investment in power, transportation and public utilities was 0.42 trillion yuan, 0.59 trillion yuan and 0.88 trillion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.1%, 7.1% and – 0.3% respectively. This month, the performance of infrastructure investment is good, the year-on-year growth of power and transportation is large, and the year-on-year decline of public water conservancy investment is also significantly reduced compared with November.
Land transaction: in December, the land transaction area of Baicheng fell year-on-year and increased month on month; The land supply area decreased year-on-year and month on month: in December, the planned land construction area of 100 cities totaled 150 million square meters, a decrease of 55.8% and a month on month increase of 28.0%; The average transaction floor price is 3138 yuan / square meter, with an increase of 778 yuan / square meter,; The supply area is 100 million square meters, with a decrease of 47.6%; The unit price of the listed floor is 1281 yuan / square meter, with a decrease of 1111 yuan / square meter. In December, the land transaction area increased significantly month on month, or it is related to the marginal easing trend of policies in the real estate industry.
Real estate construction: in December, the commencement continued to decline, and the completion month on month increased significantly: in 2021, the newly started and completed areas of real estate were 1.99 billion square meters and 1.01 billion square meters respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 11.4% and 11.2% respectively; The newly started and completed areas in December were 160 million square meters and 330 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 31.2% and 1.9% respectively. The newly started area in December was basically the same as that in November, and the completed area increased significantly by 184.9%.
Real estate sales: in December, the sales volume fell year-on-year, the ring ratio increased, and the price remained basically stable year-on-year: the total sales area of commercial housing in 2021 was 1.79 billion square meters, an increase of 1.9% at the same time. In December, the sales area of commercial housing was 210 million square meters, with a decrease of 15.6%, an increase of 41.2% month on month, and an obvious increase month on month. In December, the average sales unit price of real estate was 9512.3 yuan / square meter, which was basically stable year-on-year and month on month. Under the policy tone of “housing without speculation”, we believe that the real estate industry will maintain stability for a long time, and the sales area and sales unit price of commercial housing will gradually stabilize.
New orders: the amount of new orders signed in December China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) increased year-on-year, and the amount of new orders signed by central construction enterprises increased steadily throughout the year: the amount of new orders signed in December China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) was 466.1 billion yuan, 134.09 billion yuan and 34.63 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 42.7%, 6.9% and 12.3% respectively. In 2021, the amount of new orders signed by the three central construction enterprises was 3.1 trillion, 1.2 trillion and 0.27 trillion respectively, increasing by 12.2%, 18.2% and 7.4% at the same time. The amount of new orders increased steadily.
Investment advice
It is recommended that capital construction sector and assembled design faucet Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) .
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the investment in manufacturing industry slows down, the promotion of prefabricated buildings is less than expected, and the industry policy risk
