Core view
Compared with last week, the turnover of new houses and second-hand houses increased this week. This week, 41000 new houses were sold in 47 cities, up 13.6% month on month and down 30.5% year-on-year; The number of new houses sold in 18 large and medium-sized cities was 30000, an increase of 30.5% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%; 1、 The number of new houses sold in the second and third tier cities changed by + 5.6%, + 49.3%, – 1.5% month on month, and – 10.4%, – 1.3%, – 76.0% year-on-year respectively. The number of second-hand housing transactions in 16 cities was 16000, an increase of 84.1% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%; The number of second-hand housing transactions in 12 large and medium-sized cities was 14000, an increase of 92.6% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 17.3%; 1、 The number of second-hand housing transactions in second and third tier cities increased by + 61.4%, + 128.8% and + 28.1% month on month respectively, and the year-on-year growth rates were – 32.5%, – 3.6% and – 37.2% respectively.
Compared with the previous week, the inventory of new houses increased, and the decontamination cycle decreased. The inventory of new houses in 15 cities was 1.034 million units, an increase of 1000 units month on month, and the decontamination cycle was 11.1 months, with no significant change month on month; The inventory of new houses in 8 large and medium-sized cities was 565000 units, with no significant change month on month, and the deconvolution cycle was 7.8 months, with no significant change month on month; The inventory of new houses in the first tier cities was 268000 units, with a month on month increase of 3000 units. The decommissioning cycle was 7.4 months, with a month on month increase of 0.1 months. The inventory of new houses in the second tier cities was 206000 units, with a month on month decrease of 3000 units. The decommissioning cycle was 8.6 months, with a month on month decrease of 0.5 months. The inventory of new houses in the third tier cities was 91000 units, with no significant change on a month on month basis. The deconvolution cycle was 7.3 months, up 0.2 months on a month on month basis.
The overall land market fell compared with the volume and price of last week, and the land premium rate did not change significantly. The number of all types of land traded in Baicheng was 47, down 81.3% month on month and 92.3% year-on-year; The planned construction area of the traded land was 3.58 million square meters, a month on month decrease of 81.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 92.4%; The total land transaction price was 4.6 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 88.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 95.1%; The average floor price of the land traded was 1274 yuan / square meter, a month on month decrease of 35.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.6%; The land premium rate is 0%.
Investment advice
This week China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) completed the registration of 3 billion yuan of M & A bills, of which 1.29 billion yuan was used for acquisition. High quality real estate enterprises’m & A will help to accelerate the liquidation of the industry, but the buyers and sellers are still playing the game, and the scale and progress of M & a need to be further observed. We believe that bank M & A loans and M & A bills have a high threshold for the application of subjects and projects, and are more inclined to head real estate enterprises and central state-owned enterprises, and the loan amount covers up to 60% of the transaction consideration. Recently, regulators have encouraged M & A loans, M & A bills and other financial instruments to support M & A, which has played a positive effect on the recovery of market confidence, However, when the short-term market risk has not been fully resolved, banks and real estate enterprises are cautious. In the past, the main force of market-oriented acquisition was private enterprises. Taking the M & a peak in 2017-2018 as an example, the M & A intensity of state-owned enterprises was significantly lower than that of other private enterprises in the same echelon. The M & A of state-owned enterprises mainly focused on policy restructuring, and there were relatively few market-oriented M & A. However, at present, the risk of financial institutions to private enterprises is relatively low. At present, the relaxation of M & A is mainly aimed at central state-owned enterprises, It has not effectively solved the problem of large liquidity pressure of private real estate enterprises. At the same time, the Bureau of statistics released the average residential sales price data of 70 large and medium-sized cities this week. From the number of declining cities, it increased rapidly from 36 in September to 52 in October, increased to 59 in November and fell back to 50 in December. However, the overall house price still decreased by 0.3% month on month, and the growth rate continued to be negative for four months, the first time since March 2015. Therefore, we believe that the expectation of policy improvement is still strengthening, It is in a state of watching while adjusting. From the perspective of sector investment opportunities, we still believe that there is a good allocation window in the first quarter, the expectation of policy improvement is still strengthened, and the industry beta market after policy repair is worthy of attention. At that time, the valuation of second-line real estate enterprises with greater flexibility may be improved. In the short term, it is still recommended to pay attention to the head real estate enterprises. We suggest to pay attention to: 1) development sector: Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Longhu group and China Resources Land. 2) Property sector: Country Garden service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, China Resources Vientiane life.
Risk tips
Real estate regulation continues to upgrade; Sales fell more than expected; Financing continued to tighten.
