Core portfolio: Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) , Iray Technology Company Limited(688301) , Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Suzhou Sushi Testing Group Co.Ltd(300416) , Wuhan Raycus Fiber Laser Technologies Co.Ltd(300747) , Zhejiang Jiecang Linear Motion Technology Co.Ltd(603583) , Centre Testing International Group Co.Ltd(300012)
Key combinations: Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Shanghai Friendess Electronic Technology Corporation Limited(688188) , Shenzhen Hymson Laser Intelligent Equipments Co.Ltd(688559) , Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Sinoseal Holding Co.Ltd(300470) , Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co.Ltd(002353) , Guangzhou Kdt Machinery Co.Ltd(002833) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Shanghai Kelai Mechatronics Engineering Co.Ltd(603960) , Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059)
Suggestions: Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187)
This week’s topic 1: semiconductor equipment: 21-year repeat + how to see the track in 22 years?
TSMC: the annual revenue in 2021 was USD 57.315 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 18.53%; The annual gross profit margin was 51.63%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.47pcts. The annual net interest rate was 37.61%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.55pcts.
With the semiconductor industry transferring to Chinese mainland, Chinese mainland has become the largest semiconductor equipment market in the world. Global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales increased by 19% from US $59.8 billion in 2019 to a record high of US $71.2 billion in 2020. China became the world’s largest semiconductor equipment market for the first time, with sales increasing by 39% to US $18.72 billion.
TSMC’s investment plan has greatly boosted the expectation of the semiconductor market in 2022. We expect that Chinese wafer factories will also follow up the expansion of production, resulting in a large number of semiconductor equipment and factory demand. At present, the penetration rate of domestic equipment is still low. Under the trend of domestic substitution, Chinese equipment manufacturers will usher in excellent development opportunities. Topic 2 of this week: construction machinery sector: growth > periodicity in 2022
Excavator sales in December: in December, the excavator industry sold 24038 sets, with a year-on-year growth of – 23.8%, including 15423 sets in China (including Hong Kong and Macao), with a year-on-year growth of – 43.5%, and 8615 sets exported, with a year-on-year growth of + 104.6%. The cumulative sales volume of the excavator industry from January to December was 342784 units, with a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, including 274357 units in China, with a year-on-year increase of – 6.3%, and 68427 units exported, with a year-on-year increase of 97%.
In terms of structure, 9498 / 3820 / 2105 sets of small / medium / large excavation were sold respectively in December, with a year-on-year increase of – 41.9% / 48.7% / 40.1%, and 162994 / 77818 / 33545 sets of cumulative small / medium / large excavation were sold respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 8% / 0.7% / – 12.8%.
We expect the excavator sales volume to remain – 6.69% to – 21.7% in 2022, and the growth rate of domestic sales is expected to be – 18.34% to – 34.6%. Under optimistic / neutral / pessimistic assumptions, the excavator sales volume is expected to be 319900 / 303300 / 268400, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 6.69% / – 11.53% / – 21.7%.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn or major policy changes, infrastructure and real estate investment fell sharply; Sino US trade frictions affect China’s investment sentiment; The calculation is subjective and only for reference.
