\u3000\u3000 Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) (002603)
[matters]
Recently, the company's class 1.1 new drug Jieyu Chufan capsule received the drug registration certificate approved and issued by the State Drug Administration.
[comment]
The clinical effect of Jieyu Chufan capsule, a class 1.1 product of traditional Chinese medicine, is remarkable. Jieyu Chufan capsule is an innovative traditional Chinese medicine independently developed by the company on the basis of clinical experience. The company has independent and complete intellectual property rights of the drug. The clinical effect of the drug is remarkable. The company has carried out a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, double simulation, parallel control clinical trial of placebo and fluoxetine hydrochloride tablets. The results show that the score of Hamilton Depression Scale (HAMD-17) is lower than the baseline. The curative effect of the test group is better than that of the placebo group and not worse than that of the fluoxetine hydrochloride tablet group; Improve the scores of single symptoms of traditional Chinese medicine syndromes such as depression and Hamilton Anxiety Scale (HAMA).
Benefiting from the brand drive, the core varieties continued to grow at a high rate. The company's cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products won the first prize of national scientific and technological progress, which has a positive impact on the market promotion of three cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products. We expect that the sales growth of cardio cerebrovascular products is expected to maintain 15-20%. The sales revenue of Lianhua Qingwen in 2021 is expected to decline year-on-year, which is due to the decline in sales in some regions after the epidemic is stable. It is expected that the regional sales covered by Lianhua Qingwen terminal will be relatively stable in 2022. The company will strengthen the coverage in overseas markets and weak sales areas in China, and actively expand the use scenario of Lianhua Qingwen, that is, to prevent influenza. At present, the indications of Lianhua Qingwen to prevent influenza are in clinical trials, which is expected to greatly improve the applicable population of Lianhua Qingwen in the future. At the same time, the trial of Lianhua Qingwen in overseas multi centers is ongoing, which is expected to promote overseas sales expansion. We expect that the sales of Lianhua Qingwen will maintain a growth of 10-15%.
There are abundant innovative products and reserve pipelines of traditional Chinese medicine. Based on the exclusive collateral disease theory, the company has built core varieties such as cardio cerebrovascular series and Lianhua Qingwen series. At the same time, potential varieties have gradually increased and the treatment field has been continuously expanded. At present, the company has more than 20 products in preclinical stage and hundreds of hospital preparations. It is expected that 1-2 patented products will be applied for listing every year in the future, and the product structure will be gradually enriched.
The optimization and upgrading of marketing system promotes the continuous growth of performance. The company has completed such measures as dividing the main products, sinking the marketing strategy to the grass-roots level, increasing the number of sales personnel and so on, so as to improve the company's channel sales and terminal promotion ability. At present, the structure of the company's sales personnel has been adjusted according to the product line, the number of sales personnel has increased rapidly, and the terminal of the subdivided product line is covered, which is expected to improve the market penetration of the whole line of products.
The company's performance continued to grow in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 8.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25.81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.43%; The net profit deducted from non profit was RMB 1.174 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 19.57%. The company achieved a revenue of 2.216 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year increase of + 13.01% and a month on month decrease of 0.55%; The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 2.595 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.02% and a month on month decrease of 10.32%. Driven by the brand and promoted by marketing upgrading, the company's performance in the third quarter maintained steady growth, the three major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products continued to increase in large quantities, and the second-line varieties Jinlida, Bazi Bushen and xialiqi all achieved rapid growth.
Sales and R & D expenses increased slightly, and the net profit decreased. In the third quarter, the company's gross profit margin was 64.20%, a year-on-year increase of 1.99pct; The net interest rate was 15.09%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.67pct. In terms of expenses, the company's sales expense rate in the first three quarters was 34.47% / management expense rate was 4.28% / financial expense rate was 0.34% / R & D expense rate was 6.63%, and yoy changes were + 2.69pct / - 0.68pct / + 0.58pct / + 0.40pct respectively. The rate of sales expenses and R & D expenses of the company is relatively stable.
Guided by the collateral disease theory of traditional Chinese medicine, the company supports the innovation of patented drugs by the "three combination" traditional Chinese medicine evaluation evidence system combining traditional Chinese medicine theory, "human experience" and clinical trials. At present, there are hundreds of preparations in the hospital with rich product reserves, which provides a strong driving force for the company to continue to maintain rapid growth in the next few years. The optimization and upgrading of the company's marketing system has been completed. We have increased the company's sales expenses and R & D expenses and reduced the management expenses. It is estimated that the company's operating revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 10.756/13.93/15.274 billion yuan respectively, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be adjusted to 1.874/21.73/2.386 billion yuan, EPS will be 1.12/1.30/1.43 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 17 / 15 / 14 times respectively, Maintain the company's "overweight" rating.
[risk tips]
Policy change risk;
Price fluctuation risk of raw materials;
Risk of drug price reduction;
